It’s been a minute since the world has had to focus its attention on a microscopic germ, but that’s exactly what has happened in the wake of a deadly hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius.
As of May 12, there have been 11 probable or confirmed cases of hantavirus connected to the ship outbreak, along with three linked deaths. One of these victims, a French woman, is currently in critical condition. All of the cases so far have occurred among passengers and crew, but health officials are tracking and testing people who came into contact with infected people outside the cruise, particularly a Dutch woman who boarded two flights after leaving the ship in late April.
Hantaviruses typically are zoonotic (animal-to-human) diseases that spread through contact with infected rodents or their droppings. This outbreak, however, is being caused by a species that can be transmitted between people, the Andes virus. And the World Health Organization and other groups have stated that more cases may emerge in the weeks to come, including secondary infections caught outside the cruise. At the same time, WHO officials have also consistently stated this outbreak poses a low risk to the public, even explicitly saying this is not “another covid” in reference to the covid-19 pandemic that caused widespread deaths and illnesses starting just six years ago.
It’s an assessment that I completely agree with, for reasons I’ve gone over before. Yet this outbreak can’t help but make many people, myself included, wonder just how well we would fare if a pandemic-level threat did cross our path again in the near future. One 2021 study estimated that another pandemic on the scale of covid-19 is likely to arrive sometime in the next six decades, within many of our lifetimes.
For this Giz Asks, we reached out to researchers who have worked to study and contain infectious diseases, including covid-19. They’ve shared their thoughts on exactly why this outbreak is low risk, their assessment of the current efforts from the WHO and other countries to curtail its spread, and whether the world and individual countries like the U.S. are truly prepared to prevent or at least mitigate the next big one. The following has been edited for grammar and clarity.
Krutika Kuppalli
An infectious diseases physician in Dallas, Texas, with experience in global health and pandemic preparedness, who has previously worked for the WHO as a medical officer.
The ongoing hantavirus outbreak is an important reminder that infectious disease threats have not disappeared simply because the acute phase of COVID-19 has faded from public attention. While hantavirus is very different from COVID-19 in terms of transmission dynamics and pandemic potential, outbreaks like this test the same core public health systems: surveillance, rapid diagnostics, communication, coordination, and public trust.
The reality is that the United States remains vulnerable. We learned many painful lessons during COVID-19, but preparedness is not something you build once and then walk away from. It requires sustained investment, clear leadership, and strong public health infrastructure. At a moment when we are facing emerging infectious disease threats around the world, the absence of confirmed leadership in key public health positions, including a CDC Director, Surgeon General, and stable leadership at the FDA, creates uncertainty during a time when clarity and coordination are essential.
Preparedness is not only about stockpiles or hospitals; it is also about communication, trust, and the ability to rapidly mobilize expertise across agencies and jurisdictions. Outbreaks move quickly, and leadership vacuums can slow decision-making, create inconsistent messaging, and undermine public confidence.
At the same time, it is important not to overstate the current hantavirus situation. Hantaviruses are not new, and most do not spread efficiently between humans. However, the Andes virus strain linked to this outbreak is unusual because limited person-to-person transmission has been documented, which is why public health officials are taking the situation seriously and monitoring exposed individuals closely.
Ultimately, the question is not whether another outbreak or even another pandemic will occur, it is when. The countries that fare best will be the ones that maintain strong public health systems, invest in preparedness between crises, and communicate transparently with the public before emergencies escalate.
Bhakti Hansoti
An emergency physician at Johns Hopkins Medicine who previously oversaw and coordinated critical care responses across eight countries during the height of the covid-19 pandemic.
Hantavirus understandably raises anxiety for many people because severe cases can resemble some of the clinical features we saw during COVID-19, particularly rapid respiratory failure, hypoxia, and critical illness. However, it is important to clearly distinguish the two viruses. At this time, the evidence strongly suggests that hantavirus—including the Andes strain currently under close monitoring—does not possess the same transmission characteristics that allowed COVID-19 to become a global pandemic. Unlike SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—hantaviruses do not replicate and spread efficiently through casual airborne exposure. While rare person-to-person transmission has been documented with the Andes virus, these events typically occur through very close and prolonged contact and have not demonstrated sustained community spread.
Importantly, the public health strategies currently being implemented—including rapid case identification, isolation, exposure monitoring, and aggressive contact tracing—have been highly effective in interrupting transmission chains. The activation of the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit and preparedness activities across U.S. biocontainment centers, including at Johns Hopkins, reflects the seriousness with which the healthcare system is approaching this outbreak. At present, I anticipate that the strong public health response will successfully break the circle of transmission and contain the outbreak.
That said, this outbreak is also a reminder that emerging infectious diseases remain a constant global threat. Viruses evolve, ecosystems are changing, and increased human-animal interaction continues to create opportunities for spillover events. While there is currently no evidence that hantavirus is evolving into a highly transmissible pandemic pathogen, global preparedness cannot be disease-specific; it must focus on building resilient systems capable of rapidly detecting and responding to any emerging threat.
As a mother, a scientist, and an emergency physician, I am not significantly changing my daily life. My children are continuing to go to school and attend their activities, and I am continuing normal routines like going to the grocery store and working clinically. Based on the current evidence, this is not a virus behaving like COVID-19. I feel confident that the public health infrastructure, preparedness systems, and response strategies currently in place will help contain this outbreak and strengthen our ability to respond to future emerging infectious disease threats as well.
Wenjun Ma
A researcher at the University of Missouri’s College of Veterinary Medicine, with a specific focus on emerging zoonotic viral infections.
People should recognize that the Andes virus responsible for the outbreak on the cruise ship is commonly found in rodents in South American countries, but not in northern America and other regions. Andes virus infections are serious but currently rare, and hantaviruses are not spread effectively like influenza viruses or SARS-CoV-2.
The limited human-to-human transmission observed with Andes virus is unusual and warrants caution. From a scientific perspective, it is important to investigate whether the Andes virus responsible for the outbreak on the cruise ship has undergone changes, as RNA viruses can evolve rapidly, which could result in enhanced transmission among people. In general, however, the potential of hantavirus to cause large outbreaks and pandemic remains very low because only a limited people on the cruise ship were infected, suggesting that transmission occurs through close contact rather than efficient aerosol spread among people.
This outbreak underlines the importance of early detection, rapid surveillance, and preparedness for vaccines and antivirals in preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases, especially viral diseases that can spread rapidly. According to past pandemics in human history, pandemic viruses often originate from animals, and most people do not have preexisting immunity against these novel pathogens. Enhanced surveillance in wildlife, livestock, and human populations can help identify zoonotic viral threats before widespread transmission occurs. Notably, RNA viruses can evolve rapidly through mutation and adaptation. Although most hantaviruses do not show human-to-human transmission, the unusual transmission characteristics of Andes virus demonstrate why continuous genomic surveillance and laboratory research are necessary to monitor for changes that could affect transmissibility or virulence.
Therefore, it is important to pay greater attention to RNA viruses including hantavirus, because their fast changes may accelerate cross-species transmission and enhance human-to-human transmission. In addition, we need to develop vaccine platforms and effective antivirals targeting high-risk virus families in preparation for potential future outbreaks and pandemics in order to protect public health.
English (US) ·