Weekend Box Office: Mufasa Rules Again

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Hollywood decided to forego their recent tradition of kicking off the new year with a horror film (M3GAN, Night Swim) and just let sleeping lions and hedgehogs lie, not that either have been getting much rest through the holidays as they continue to fight for dominance, both short-term and long. Neither are in the Wicked or Moana class, but theaters are happy to have all of them while horror is bucking Christmas tradition and providing a late gift to a studio that had anything but a happy 2024.

**King of the Crop: Mufasa Rules Again**

Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King reclaimed Pride Rock from Sonic after the hedgehog stole the 3-day weekend from Simba’s father despite leading the 5-day Christmas holiday. Another $23.8 million this weekend brings Mufasa’s 17-day total to $168.6 million. That is just outside the top 20 for December releases in that stretch, behind Jumanji: The Next Level ($175.4 million) and National Treasure: Book of Secrets ($170.8 million) but ahead of Sherlock Holmes ($165.1 million) and Night at the Museum ($163.8 million). That said, Mufasa’s weekend was better than at least three of those films, including Museum’s $23.7 million third go. That’s a good sign, except the prequel would have to replicate a stretch through January and into February that saw Museum never drop more than 33.2%. Besting National Treasure, though, suggests it is headed for at least $220+ million domestic, if not Museum’s $250 million haul. Couple that with over $476 million worldwide already and Disney is about to have their eighth half-billion worldwide haul in the last three years and the ninth film overall released in 2024.

**Tales of the Top 10: Sonic Speeds Along, Nosferatu Eyes a Milestone**

Not far behind in second place is indeed Sonic the Hedgehog 3, taking in $21.2 million in its third weekend. That brings its 17-day take to $187.5 million, which is firmly in the top 20 of December releases — 18th, in fact, behind The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ($189.5 million) and The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring ($189.2 million) and ahead of Meet the Fockers ($184.6 million). Unlike Mufasa, Sonic’s weekend trails behind both The Hobbit and even The Fockers by around $7-8 million each. However, its weekend is not far from last year’s Wonka ($22.4 million), whose third weekend came pre-New Years and was a 24.5% increase over its second. That prequel also only had $133.1 million after 17 days, so there is an actual scenario where we see Sonic stretch itself to over $250 million if it holds well through January. Globally, the film is over $336 million and into profit territory for Paramount. The entire series has now grossed over a billion dollars across the world.

One of the bigger stories of the season that is picking up traction is the response to Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu. Critics naturally went gaga over it, but apparently, so have audiences in what is quite the boon to Focus Features. Apart from the limited but solid success of Conclave, they have been the “hold my beer” to Lionsgate this year, albeit without the huge pockets of money wasted on big projects. Up until Christmas, Conclave was Focus’ biggest story, grossing over $31 million since October. Nosferatu is now up to $69.4 million domestic in 12 days after earning another $13.2 million this weekend. It’s the studio’s fourth-highest grossing film, and no other film in the studio’s history has grossed as much so fast. Downton Abbey had made $62.3 million in that stretch and remains their highest-grossing domestic release with $96.8 million. That’s right: Focus has never had a $100 million-grossing film in its initial run. Coraline has gotten there thanks to re-releases, but not even Brokeback Mountain achieved that. Can Nosferatu become the first?

Looking at late December releases, Nosferatu is mostly looking up at big family and event titles, so it’s hard to measure if its potential path forward is full of big drops or not. What we can say is that this weekend’s 39% drop is a good sign and is in line with We Bought a Zoo ($13.2 million after a 41% drop). Nosferatu already owns a $22 million lead on that film, so if it stays on a similar path, it could be looking at somewhere between $95-100 million — maybe just enough to become Focus’ all-time domestic grosser, but missing the magic number. It may not be the PG-13 horror film Hollywood has banked on the past two Januarys, but it could be the one audiences deserve, and Focus has a chance to make some history with it. Nosferatu is now the 16th film in the studio’s history to cross $100 million worldwide.

Now we get to the big one-two punch of the holiday season. Wicked was put on PVOD on New Year’s Eve and took a little hit, falling 48% to fifth place with $10.2 million. However, that does shoot its total to over $450 million. For weeks we have been saying $475+ million was definitely in the cards, but let’s explore its potential to become the 24th film with a full $500 million domestic. Looking towards the low films on that totem pole from the Star Wars franchise, The Rise of Skywalker has a $48 million lead and Rogue One $70 million. But Wicked has a $4-7 million lead just comparing their seventh weekends. It is headed into January, where both of the Star Wars films trailed off and made about $8-13 million apiece from Day 46 on. Wicked will make within that margin just over the next week. So this is something to keep an eye on, even as the film is headed towards $700 million globally.

Meanwhile, Moana 2 is thinking Wicked can have that chump change half-a-billion milestone since it is already over $960 million worldwide. Another $12.4 million was added to its now $425+ million domestic haul, while it crossed $500 million outside of North America. It is the 15th film to gross $900 million or more since 2021 and could have enough kava to become Disney’s 28th billion-dollar grossing film. It is currently their 10th-highest grossing animated film of all time.

Sixth place again goes to A Complete Unknown in its second weekend with $8.1 million. James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic with Timothée Chalamet, which is a few weeks away from a likely Oscar nomination, is up to $41.7 million in 12 days. That puts it around the numbers of another true story released on Christmas Day, David O. Russell’s Joy with Jennifer Lawrence. It made $40.4 million in its first 12 days but also had a better second weekend with $10.2 million and finished with over $56 million. This $70 million production appears headed somewhere between $50-60 million, which could actually make it one of Searchlight’s 10 highest-grossing domestic releases, all of which have the distinction of being Best Picture nominees.

Rounding out the top 10, we have Babygirl in seventh place with $4.4 million, bringing its total to $16.1 million. That’s actually enough to put it into the top 20 domestic grosses ever for A24 and the studio’s 10th best for a film to start wide (i.e. not platformed from a limited release). In comparison, director Halina Reijn’s Bodies Bodies Bodies finished with $11.4 million in 2022. Eighth place goes to Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II with $2.7 million. At $168.9 million, the film is right in line to finish in the $175 million range that we have estimated for weeks. The film is over $440 million worldwide. Angel Studios’ Homestead became one of their highest-grossing films to date with another $2.1 million to bring its total to $17.5 million. Another $2 million after that would pass Cabrini as their second highest ever after last year’s Sound of Freedom. Finally, Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside finished in 10th with $1.2 million. It has grossed just $7.1 million since Christmas.

**Beyond the Top 10: Seven Resurfaces and The Brutalist Cracks a Million**

Did we say there were no new horror films this week? Well, David Fincher’s Seven was re-released for its 30th anniversary in 182 IMAX screens, and it grossed $850,000. The original fall release in 1995 grossed $100.1 million domestic and opened the same day as Paul Verhoeven’s Showgirls. There is also more semi-wide horror out there. The Damned with Odessa Young opened in 732 theaters over the weekend and grossed $801,000 for a $1,094 per-theater average. Remember Kraven the Hunter? That horror show for Sony is still out there in 1,862 theaters, and it made $1 million to bring its domestic total to just $23.7 million.

Brady Corbet and A24’s newly minted Golden Globe-winner The Brutalist cracked a million bucks this week. Total. The weekend added $244,000 to its $1.17 million total in eight theaters, a $30,543 per-theater average. This bodes well for a decent awards run, as it is set to score many nominations on Jan. 17. Best Animated Feature hopeful Flow, from Sideshow & Janus Films, is up to $2.6 million after grossing $216,000 in 127 theaters. They also have All We Imagine as Light still in 44 theaters, where it made $74,500 for a total to date of $752,000. MGM/Amazon expanded RaMell Ross’ Nickel Boys into 18 theaters in week four, where it grossed $151,000 to bring its total to $413,000. It expands a little further on Jan. 10 before a wider release on the 17th, when it also hopes to have a Best Picture nomination among others.

On the Vine: Den of Thieves Goes Global in Pantera

Next week will see further expansions of films like The Brutalist, Better Man, Hard Truths, The Room Next Door and September 5, as well as Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl after a one-week run in December. But the first new big release of the year is Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. The first film made nearly $45 million (and $80 million worldwide) for STX back in 2018, so Lionsgate is hoping the sequel with Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr. will bring in audiences who made the first film a little surprise hit.

Full List of Box Office Results: January 3-5, 2024

55% 89% Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) – $23.8 million ($168.6 million total)
86% 96% Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (2024) – $21.2 million ($187.5 million total)
85% 74% Nosferatu (2024) – $13.2 million ($69.4 million total)
61% 86% Moana 2 (2024) – $12.4 million ($425.2 million total)
88% 95% Wicked (2024) – $10.2 million ($450.8 million total)
79% 96% A Complete Unknown (2024) – $8.1 million ($41.7 million total)
77% 50% Babygirl (2024) – $4.4 million ($16.1 million total)
71% 82% Gladiator II (2024) – $2.7 million ($168.9 million total)
35% 72% Homestead (2024) – $2.1 million ($17.5 million total)
94% 95% The Fire Inside (2024) – $1.2 million ($7.1 million total)