Making a small fortune betting on the ouster of world leaders or the timing of global conflicts may not be legal in the U.S. for much longer.
U.S. lawmakers introduced a new bill this week that would ban several types of bets on prediction market platforms, including wagers on “government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome,” according to a press release.
The bill, dubbed the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, was introduced Tuesday by Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar in both chambers of Congress.
The proposal comes as prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face growing scrutiny following high-profile cases of users making large profits on suspiciously timed trades tied to global conflicts. These include bets related to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Polymarket has even pulled markets that previously allowed users to bet on the probability of a nuclear weapon being detonated before a certain date, following online backlash.
“What we have found is that in this administration, there are clearly individuals in the White House who are making money off of when the United States goes to war or not,” said Sen. Murphy in a video posted on X. “And it’s time that we just say there’s no circumstances in which government action should be pushed one way or another, based upon an individual’s desire to cash in.”
Beyond banning bets that could give government officials financial incentives to push for certain outcomes, the bill also targets wagers on events where insiders may know or control the outcome ahead of time. That could include bets on who performs at the Super Bowl halftime show, Oscar winners, and even the winners of reality TV shows like Survivor.
“This bill will stop the transformation of our society into a rigged video game casino by banning the prediction markets that allow the powerful insiders to get rich by commodifying every part of our lives,” Murphy said in a press release.
The bill goes after one of the core appeals of prediction markets. While both Kalshi and Polymarket ban insider trading, they also promote the idea that “experts” can use their knowledge to place better-informed bets, and in turn, improve the market’s accuracy.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been around since 2018 but have gained traction in recent years, especially after correctly forecasting major events like the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 New York City mayoral race. Bettors also correctly predicted roughly 80% of the winners at this past weekend’s Oscars.
The bill also comes as Kalshi faces criminal charges from the Arizona attorney general over alleged illegal gambling and election wagering.
Kalshi declined to comment on the bill, while Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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