Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Ryan Coogler: Why the DGA Awards Could Crown a Frontrunner, or Rewrite the Oscar Race

It may be Super Bowl weekend, but in Hollywood, another playoff-style contest is commanding attention — one Oscar pundits and awards analysts will be watching closely.

The Directors Guild of America will hold its 78th annual DGA Awards on Saturday, hosted by Oscar and Emmy-nominated comedian Kumail Nanjiani.

When DGA nominations were announced on Jan. 8, the Oscar races for best picture and best director appeared all but nailed. But since then, the contest has tightened into somewhat of a nail-biter after the Oscar nominations presented two films — “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” — leading the field.

The DGA Awards voting period closes on Friday, Feb. 6, one day before the ceremony and 19 days before final Oscar voting opens. The DGA ceremony is widely regarded as one of the most essential Oscar precursors. The DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film has been a reliable predictor of the Academy Award for best director. The five DGA nominees are:

Coogler’s nomination is historic, becoming only the fifth Black director ever recognized in the category and the first since Spike Lee for “BlacKkKlansman” (2018). The other previous Black nominees include Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”) and Lee Daniels (“Precious”). No Black filmmaker has ever won the DGA’s top directing prize.

Meanwhile, Zhao has her own record with her nomination for “Hamnet.” After winning the Oscar and DGA prize for “Nomadland” (2020), she now joins Jane Campion, Kathryn Bigelow and Greta Gerwig as the only women to earn multiple DGA nominations. Only 12 women have ever been nominated in the category, and Zhao is the first woman of color to be nominated twice.

This also marks the second time in DGA history that a majority of nominees in the top category come from filmmakers from underrepresented communities. The first occurred in 2017, with winners Guillermo Del Toro (“The Shape of Water”), Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”) and Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), alongside Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) and Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”). Coincidentally, Del Toro returns to the lineup this year with his second nom for “Frankenstein,” but he’s the only director not nominated for the Oscar. The last DGA winner that wasn’t nominated for the Oscar was Ben Affleck for “Argo” (2012), which still went on to win best picture.

When assessing this year’s DGA lineup, no contender enters the phase two of awards season with more momentum than Warner Bros.’ “Sinners,” which scored a historic 16 Oscar nominations — the most in history.

Since its inception, the DGA has correctly predicted the Academy Award winner for best director in all but eight instances:

Last year, Sean Baker won the DGA’s top honor for “Anora,” which went on to win four individual Oscars, including best picture, director, original screenplay and film editing.

A win for Coogler would reshape the race and solidify his status as the clear Oscar frontrunner in a category that has yet to recognize a Black directing winner. Still, Paul Thomas Anderson — the season’s early juggernaut — remains a formidable contender among pundits. Earning his third career DGA nomination, following “There Will Be Blood” (2007) and “Licorice Pizza” (2021), Anderson also receives an emotional boost tied to the late Adam Somner, his longtime first assistant director, who died in Nov. 2024 — a loss likely to resonate with DGA voters. A vote for Anderson would also honor Somner, as the guild recognizes the whole directorial filmmaking team, including unit production managers and first and second assistant directors.

Beyond feature films, the DGA Awards recognize achievement in documentary and first-time feature filmmaking. The documentary feature nominees are:

Two of the five Oscar documentary feature nominees — Gandbhir and the duo of Khaki and Eyni — are recognized here, though a DGA nomination has not always translated to Academy success.

Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, the DGA and Oscar documentary winners have aligned inconsistently:

Netflix’s “The Perfect Neighbor” has dominated the precursor circuit, leading the field with more than two dozen wins. It is followed at a distance by the non-Oscar-nominated “Orwell: 2+2=5” and the self-distributed “My Undesirable Friends: Part I — Last Air in Moscow.”

Poitras and Chernov have both won this category before — Poitras for “Citizenfour” and Chernov for “20 Days in Mariupol.” Only three filmmakers have won more than once: Matthew Heineman (2015, 2017, 2022), Jehane Noujaim (2001, 2004, 2013) and Barbara Kopple (1991, 1993). Neither Poitras nor Chernov is expected to join that list this year.

While “Cutting Through Rocks” is critically acclaimed and has strong international support — and could echo a winning partnership like last year’s victors, Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, for “Porcelain War” — it may lack the kind of singular, visionary style the branch often rewards. A similar case can be made for Elizabeth Lo’s well-regarded “Mistress Dispeller.”

That leaves Geeta Gandbhir, who made Oscar history as the first Indian woman to receive double nominations in the same year. She is only the second Indian woman ever nominated in documentary feature, following Nisha Pahuja for “To Kill a Tiger” (2023). Gandbhir also earned a nomination for her HBO documentary short “The Devil Is Busy,” making her the second Indian woman nominated in that category, after Smriti Mundhra — the only Indian woman to be nominated twice in any Oscar category, for “St. Louis Superman” (2019) and “I Am Ready, Warden” (2024).

While recent years have shown some splits, the data indicate that DGA recognition in documentary is informative, not predictive, leaving the category among the most erratic on the Oscar ballot.

The Michael Apted Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a First-Time Theatrical Feature Film features a strong mix of domestic and international auteurs emerging as some of the most exciting new voices in cinema. The nominees are:

Past winners in this category include Alex Garland (“Ex Machina”), Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Bo Burnham (“Eighth Grade”), Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”), Celine Song (“Past Lives”) and RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”).

The race appears to be narrowing to a three-way showdown between Lighton — buoyed by three BAFTA nominations — Polinger, whose film earned three Independent Spirit Award noms, including best feature, and Victor, another breakout favorite with significant traction from both the Indie Spirit and Gotham Awards. This often comes down to visibility, so perhaps that gives the edge to Victor, whose film received a shout-out from Julia Roberts at the Golden Globes earlier in January. Could that have helped?

Notably, the Producers Guild of America, which announced its nominees on Jan. 9, closed voting Tuesday, Feb. 3, well ahead of its Feb. 28 ceremony. That timetable places PGA and DGA voting early in the phase two window, just 10 to 12 days after Oscar nominations are revealed. The compressed schedule can signal an “early” momentum shift rather than allowing time for a late-breaking surge. A similar scenario played out during the 72nd DGA Awards, held Jan. 25, 2020 — also 12 days after the 92nd Academy Award nominations were announced — when Sam Mendes won the DGA prize for his World War I epic “1917” (2019). Final Oscar voting that year ran from Jan. 30 to Feb. 4. Yet less than two weeks later, “Parasite” and director Bong Joon Ho made history at the Oscars, winning best picture, director, original screenplay and international feature on Feb. 19, 2020.

The TV races could ultimately fall within familiar parameters, with “The Pitt, ” whose pilot was directed by John Wells, poised to take the drama prize and “The Studio,” led by Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s showy sophomore season episode “The Oner,” emerging triumphant in comedy. Still, the potential for disruption remains with eyes on “Andor” and “Hacks,” helmed by Janus Metz and Lucia Aniello.

With “Adolescence” ineligible for DGA recognition, the door is open in the limited series category for new contenders to step into the spotlight. Netflix dominates the field, claiming four of the five directing slots, including DGA winner Jason Bateman for “Black Rabbit,” former DGA president Lesli Linka Glatter for “Zero Day,” and first-time nominees Antonio Campos for “The Beast in Me” and Ally Pankiw, also for “Black Mirror.” They face last year’s Emmy nominee Shannon Murphy, director of the Michelle Williams vehicle “Dying for Sex.”

Recency bias often plays a decisive role, and Bateman, earning his fourth career DGA nomination after a three-year run with “Ozark,” enters as a familiar name. A win here could position him as an early force in the Emmys 2026 campaign.

Until then, we wait for the DGA Awards to cast their final votes. The final Academy voting runs from Feb. 26 through Mar. 5. The 98th Academy Awards will be held Mar. 15 and air on ABC, with Conan O’Brien hosting.

Film Categories

Theatrical Feature Film
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Documentary Feature
Will Win: Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni, “Cutting Through Rocks”
Could Win: Geeta Gandbhir, “The Perfect Neighbor”

First-Time Feature
Will Win: Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Could Win: Charlie Polinger, “The Plague”

Television Categories

Drama Series
Will Win: John Wells, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) — “7:00 A.M.”
Could Win: Janus Metz, “Andor” (Disney+) — “Who Are You?”

Comedy Series
Will Win: Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+) — “The Oner”
Could Win: Lucia Aniello, “Hacks” (HBO Max) — “A Slippery Slope”

Limited or Anthology Series
Will Win: Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — “The Black Rabbits”
Could Win: Lesli Linka Glatter, “Zero Day” (Netflix) — “Episode 6”

Movies for Television
Will Win: Jesse Armstrong, “Mountainhead” (HBO Max)
Could Win: Stephen Chbosky, “Nonnas” (Netflix)

Variety Series
Will Win: Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Could Win: Andy Fisher, “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) — “Stephen Colbert; Kumail Nanjiani; Reneé Rapp”

Sports
Will Win: Matthew Gangl, “2025 World Series — Game 7” (Fox)
Could Win: Rich Russo, “Super Bowl LIX” (Fox)

Reality, Quiz or Game
Will Win: Mike Sweeney, “Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO Max) — “Austria”
Could Win: Lucinda M. Margolis, “Jeopardy!” (Syndicated) — “Episode 9341”

Documentary Series or News
Will Win: Matt Wolf, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max) — “Part 1”
Could Win: Rebecca Miller, “Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV+) — “All This Filming Isn’t Healthy”

Commercials
Will Win: Spike Jonze — Apple’s “Someday”
Could Win: Kim Gehrig — Nike’s “You Can’t Win. So Win.” and Apple’s “I’m Not Remarkable”