Oscars: Best Actress — A Funny Statistic About Golden Globes Comedy Actress Nominees Could Give Clue to Potential Academy Lineup

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Best Actress Commentary (Updated Dec. 12, 2024): Listen up everyone, we’re witnessing a race for the ages in best actress.

If you’ve been paying attention to the Golden Globe nominations, you’ll know it’s a battlefield of titans. From Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) to Kate Winslet (“Lee”) in drama, and Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) to Zendaya (“Challengers”) in comedy/musical, this year’s field is overflowing with worthy talents.

If you check out the aggregators of everyone’s Oscar predictors like Gold Derby, you’ll find three comedy/musical contenders in their top slots for the Academy Awards — Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”). Hard to argue, right?

Then you’ll find a couple of others including Demi Moore (“The Substance”), after “The Substance” flexing at Globe and CCA, and being among the top 20 for visual effects. Again, that’s a fair assessment.

But, historically, the stats could provide a sobering reality check for potential one, or more of the presumed frontrunners. While three Golden Globe comedy/musical nominees have cracked the Oscars best actress lineup three times — 2005 with Judi Dench (“Mrs. Henderson Presents”), Keira Knightley (“Pride & Prejudice”) and Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), 1979 with Jill Clayburgh (“Starting Over”), Marsha Mason (“Chapter Two”) and Bette Midler (“The Rose”), and 1964 with Oscar winner Julie Andrews (“Mary Poppins”), Sophia Loren (“Marriage Italian Style”) and Debbie Reynolds (“The Unsinkable Molly Brown”) — four comedy/musical actresses have never made an Oscar lineup.

If nominated, Erivo would become only the second Black woman in history to earn two lead actress nominations, following Viola Davis. She would also join an exclusive club of Black women recognized for lead performances in musicals following Dorothy Dandridge in “Carmen Jones” (1954).

What makes Erivo’s campaign more fascinating is her competition from another musical standout: Karla Sofía Gascón in Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language crime-musical “Emilia Pérez.” Coincidentally, the 1964 lineup is also the last time two lead actress musical performances were recognized at the Oscars.

And then we have breakout star Mikey Madison, the centerpiece of Sean Baker’s Cannes-winning “Anora,” which brought her an LAFCA win for her gripping portrayal of a young stripper. Meanwhile, Moore’s sharp turn in Coralie Fargeat’s dark comedy “The Substance” is her best work in years (and possibly her career).

Translating Globe nominations into Oscar recognition is no easy feat, especially for comedy/musical performances. Remember, while expanded categories at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards allow for more inclusivity — 12 slots at the Globes and six at the CCA — the Academy’s five-nominee limit forces brutal cuts.

Even drama actress nominees are fighting to stay in the competition. Oscar winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Kate Winslet (“Lee”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), who’s boasting wins from Venice and NBR.

Oscars history provides a roadmap but not a guarantee. Stats suggest it’s rare for two musicals to break into a best picture lineup (“Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez”). Similarly, the Academy has never embraced four comedy/musical actresses in the same year.

Still, surprises happen. No one expected “CODA” (2021) to shatter over a dozen statistical barriers and win best picture, and yet, it did.

It’s worth noting that, so far, the only two guilds with actual AMPAS voting overlap to announce wins — the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild (MUAHS) and the American Cinema Editors (ACE) — don’t recognize acting categories. The first true indicator will come when SAG voting begins on Monday. Even then, SAG can tell us we have presumed “locks” heading into nomination morning — think Margot Robbie (“Barbie”), Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”), or Amy Adams (“Arrival”) — only to see them listed on Variety’s snubs and surprises list.

Any seasoned awards watcher will tell you, that stats only get you so far. Sit tight, and let’s see where the season will take us.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.