Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography — The Stunning Statistic ‘Dune 2’ Must Overcome for Another Greig Fraser Nomination

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Best Cinematography Commentary (Updated Dec. 13, 2024): From Lol Crawley’s riveting angles in “The Brutalist” to the moody brilliance of “Nosferatu,” the cinematography race is packed with veterans and visionaries.

At the heart of the discussion is Greig Fraser, the reigning Oscar winner for “Dune” (2021), whose work on Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” has already sparked significant awards buzz. But Fraser faces a historic challenge: no sequel to a film that previously won for cinematography has ever been nominated in the category.

Fraser’s return to the “Dune” saga expands on the visual language of the first film while pushing the boundaries of sci-fi cinematography. His use of stark desert landscapes, intricate shadow play, and ethereal lighting has been lauded as some of the most breathtaking imagery of the year. Yet, as remarkable as his work is, the Academy has historically shied away from nominating sequels in this category — especially when the predecessor has already claimed the prize.

It’s a head-scratching statistic, especially considering some of the industry’s most visually iconic films. Peter Jackson’s “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001) won the Oscar for cinematography, but none of its sequels (“The Two Towers” or “The Return of the King”) earned nominations. Similarly, James Cameron’s “Avatar” (2009), a groundbreaking technical achievement, took home the cinematography Oscar, but its sequel, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022), was notably absent.

Interestingly, while no sequel to a cinematography winner has been nominated, one sequel has won. Roger Deakins earned his long-overdue first Oscar for “Blade Runner 2049” (2017), which Villeneuve also directed. If there’s one filmmaker who seems to have the secret formula for getting a cinematographer onto the Dolby Theatre stage for a sequel, it’s Villeneuve.

Still, the sample size for this “statistic” is small — fewer than 10 cinematography-winning films have even had sequels. Fraser’s nomination (and possible win) would not only break this curious trend but also reinforce his position as one of the most visionary cinematographers of his generation.

But there’s plenty of others in the mix.

Despite an illustrious career that includes “A Prophet” (2009) and “Jackie” (2016), Stéphane Fontaine is still searching for his first Oscar nomination. His work on Edward Berger’s “Conclave” could finally change that. The religious thriller, set against the backdrop of a Vatican conclave, features striking imagery that juxtaposes the grandeur of the Catholic Church with the intimate, almost claustrophobic nature of its power struggles.

Jarin Blaschke, who earned a surprise nomination for Robert Eggers’ “The Lighthouse” (2019), is once again a dark horse in the race with Eggers’ latest, “Nosferatu.” The gothic horror film, a reimagining of F.W. Murnau’s silent classic, leans heavily on Blaschke’s moody, atmospheric visuals.

Two-time nominee Edward Lachman (“Far from Heaven” and “Carol”) is no stranger to the Oscars, and his work on Angelina Jolie’s “Maria” has critics praising him. The film, a sweeping biopic about opera singer Maria Callas, features Lachman’s trademark painterly compositions and use of color to evoke the drama and beauty of its subject’s life. And let’s not forget, he also nabbed a mention most recently for “El Conde.”

ASC and BAFTA will clear things up.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.