Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Dec. 12, 2024): The televised awards ceremonies have begun announcing their nominees, and the potential Oscar lineups are beginning to formulate.
Let’s look at where everything stands.
Sean Baker’s “Anora” is leading the charge with four huge best picture victories so far, which include L.A. Film Critics, followed by “Wicked” with three and “The Brutalist” with two. An interesting stat regarding Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic “Dune: Part Two,” which garnered the second-most Critics Choice nominations with 10, is the first sequel to repeat the same hefty tally in the 30-year organization’s history.
On the director’s side, Brady Corbet and RaMell Ross are out front in three wins apiece for their films “The Brutalist” and “Nickel Boys.”
Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) are pulling away from the pack with five wins each, while Adrien Brody (“Brutalist”) is barely ahead of Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) with four trophies.
It’s not all about the actors. Over 65% of the Academy membership is represented within the technical branches. That’s where technical achievements such as “Dune 2,” “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” can shine the brightest.
Updated projections have been updated below and we have a very unpredictable race underway.
Projected nomination leaders (films): “Wicked” (11); “Emilia Pérez” (10); “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” (8)
Projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); Universal Pictures (11); A24 (10)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Mubi
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Director
Image Credit: A24
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24) -
Actor
Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features) -
Actress
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics
Cynthia Erivo ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Shanna Besson/PAGE 114 - WHY NOT
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payap Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Orion Pictures
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Arenamedia Pty Ltd.
“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) *** -
Production Design
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Colle
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros. /Courtesy Everett Collection
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Film Editing
Image Credit: Jürgen Olczyk
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Sound
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Original Score
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Original Song
Image Credit: ©Roadside Attractions/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
“I Always Wanted a Brother” from “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Tsutomu Harigaya
“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of EFA
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon) -
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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