DRAM prices predicted to jump 63% in Q2, NAND up to 75% — follows 95% jumps in Q1, Trendforce says AI server demand keeps supply tight

Conventional DRAM contract prices will rise 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, while NAND Flash contract prices will jump 70% to 75% QoQ, according to TrendForce's latest memory pricing survey. The increases follow a Q1 that saw DRAM contracts climb by a record 90% to 95% QoQ, meaning the rate of DRAM price growth has slowed somewhat, even as NAND Flash prices have accelerated sharply from the prior quarter's circa 60% increase.

Unfortunately, the underlying issue of DRAM suppliers reallocating capacity towards AI-related applications still exists, and NAND production is increasingly being directed toward enterprise SSDs. Cloud service providers are also securing the bulk of available supply through long-term agreements, and meaningful capacity expansion is not expected until late 2027 at the earliest.

The server segment is driving demand in this market, with North American cloud providers ramping AI inference infrastructure and buying up high-capacity RDIMMs in volume, TrendForce said. Meanwhile, memory makers — drawn by better margins on server products — are locking in multi-quarter supply deals with their largest customers to underwrite future capacity builds.

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PC DRAM demand has been revised downward, yet suppliers have simultaneously reduced shipments to PC OEMs and module makers, meaning OEMs receiving lower allocation fulfillment are being forced to procure at higher prices from suppliers or module vendors, which is keeping prices elevated despite softer system-level demand.

NAND Flash's c. 75% QoQ increase outpaces DRAM for the first time in the current cycle, while demand for enterprise SSDs hasn't let up as large-scale generative AI deployments continue to absorb the lion's share of production capacity. TrendForce said it expects a pronounced shortage through 2026, with new fab capacity unlikely to come online in volume before late 2027 or 2028; cloud providers are willing to pay more and commit to multi-quarter purchase agreements to guarantee allocation.

Client SSD buyers are restocking preemptively out of concern that server demand could absorb all available capacity, with suppliers maintaining prices by continuing to limit supply to client SSDs. The eMMC/UFS segment faces the tightest supply gap of any NAND product category because process capacity for eMMC/UFS overlaps with enterprise SSD production and offers significantly lower margins, making it the lowest-priority allocation for suppliers.

Meanwhile, NAND flash bit output growth remains limited despite process upgrades and higher QLC adoption. PC and smartphone vendors are reducing product storage capacities to manage costs, while NAND flash wafers have become the lowest-priority shipment category for suppliers due to thin margins and inventory adjustments.

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