What Will It Take for a Bright January Box Office? Christmas Hits, ‘Wolf Man,’ and Maybe Mark Wahlberg

Can the U.S./Canada box office manage to rise to $10 billion this year? That would be an increase of about 12 percent over 2024. Still, that number would put us far behind pre-COVID financial total (and even more so in actual attendance).

At least the first month of the new year should start things off in the right direction. Aided by strong holdovers, along with some potential help among the new wide releases, January could see grosses around $600 million.

While that would be weak historically, it would still be about 16 percent better than 2024, as the month typically (for all years from 2020 earlier, at least) adjusted for inflation has grossed $1 billion or more.

One billion bucks is about what December managed, right at our projection. A combination of strong November films led by “Wicked” (Universal) and “Moana 2” (Disney), then buttressed by “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount), “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney), and “Nosferatu” (Focus) among Christmas releases, the increase over 2023 was enough to make the full year shortfall to about three percent.

The improvement suggested momentum after a dismal first half of the year when grosses had plummeted 20 percent below the first six months of 2023. The second half improved about 12 percent over 2023’s July – December, no mean feat considering the latter year included “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”

‘Den of Thieves 2: Pantera’©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Collection

The late 2024 surge will play a major role in the likely better initial 2025 results, and holdover films could easily provide two-thirds of January’s total. With no obvious breakout hit on the schedule (pre-COVID $100 million+ grossing openers included “Bad Boys for Life,” “Split,” and “Glass”), and only one significant wide release in the first half of the month (that’s “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” from Lionsgate on January 10, at most a $15 million opening weekend), they will need to provide the bulk of sales.

Some potential bigger films arrive starting the next weekend, which encompasses the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Leigh Whannell’s “Wolf Man” (Universal), whose “The Invisible Man” was the final major release before theaters were shut down in 2021 (and still able to gross $70 million) opens on January 17. It has the best shot of leading the month.

The same day sees “One of Them Days” (Sony), a comedy starring Keke Palmer. It, like the rest of the month’s new films, has not been screened, making assessments trickier. That applies to “Flight Risk” (Lionsgate) the following week, too. With Mel Gibson directing for the first time since “Hacksaw Ridge” and Mark Wahlberg starring, this could have potential. Dreamworks’ animated “Dog Man” (Universal) the following week will be the first fresh family film of the year, offering potential to the overall box office. Warner Bros. Discovery also has the thriller “Companion” on January 31.

As usual, the month will see expansion of December limited releases parallel to the Oscar nominations on January 17. This year, only “The Brutalist” (A24) and possibly “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM) seem positioned to gain the variety of awards mentions that could translate into significant business.

‘Hard Truths’

On the specialized front: Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) and “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) go wide on January 10 after qualifying runs, Steven Soderbergh’s “Presencee” (Neon), wide on January 24 after an initial one-week platform, with Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) the stand-out otherwise among limited initial debuts on January 17.