Trump links Iran talks to lifting Hormuz blockade, weekend negotiations planned

President Trump said Iran talks will continue over the weekend, linking an agreement to lifting the blockade. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 44.0% YES, up from 35% yesterday.

Trump’s comments have traders watching two markets: Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 and the US lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31. The blockade market sits at 87.5% YES. That May 31 price implies confidence that a deal will follow the current ceasefire, which ends April 21.

The uranium enrichment market is thin, with daily USDC volume at $23,824 and only $599 needed to move the odds 5 points. Traders appear to read Trump’s linkage of the blockade to a deal as a sign of real progress. The blockade market is thicker at $33,928 per day, but $3,730 still moves the price 5 points.

What matters here is Trump’s framing. If a deal emerges, it could resolve both the blockade and the nuclear question quickly. If talks stall, both markets could reverse fast. Buying YES at 39¢ on uranium enrichment ending by April 30 pays $1 on resolution, a potential 2.55x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a breakthrough within 14 days.

Watch for announcements from the Islamabad talks and any shifts in Iranian or US diplomatic positions. Trump’s next remarks or tweets could move both markets.

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