10 vessels reverse course near Strait of Hormuz amid tensions

At least 10 vessels have reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of the US escorting commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 18% YES, down from 24% yesterday.

The retreating vessels coincide with falling odds across multiple Hormuz-related markets. Traffic normalcy by April 30 dropped to 66.5% YES from 60% the day before. Traders are pricing in continued disruption to normal operations.

The market for UK warships passing through Hormuz by April 30 remains at 6% YES, reflecting deep skepticism about allied naval involvement on this timeline.

Daily USDC volume in the US escort market is $6,939, with $2,110 needed to shift the odds 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 3:15 AM, a bearish signal. The Strait of Hormuz normalcy market has greater volume at $10,250 daily USDC, but only $354 moves those odds 5 points, making it far more reactive to new information.

Ten vessels turning around is a pattern, not an isolated event. At 18¢, buying YES shares on US escorts pays $1 if resolved, a potential 5.5x return. That bet requires confidence in a US military intervention within the next two weeks.

Watch for CENTCOM statements and naval movements. An official US announcement of escort operations would reprice these markets quickly.

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