Short-term Bitcoin buyers see 13% profit as market mirrors past cycles

Bitcoin has climbed back above $73.3K, and the people who bought most recently are finally in the green. On-chain data shows short-term buyers now hold an average profit of about 13%.

A modest cushion, not a jackpot

The key figure is cost basis, the average price a group of investors paid for their coins. When the market trades above that level, the group is in profit and has little reason to dump. When the market falls below it, underwater holders start looking for a way out.

Analysis through 2026 has found that short-term holder cost-basis levels cluster between roughly $63K and $73K. One reference point sits near the top of that range: the 3-6 month cohort has an average cost basis around $73.19K.

With Bitcoin now above $73.3K, the price is sitting just over that line. The broader short-term group shows the 13% average gain. The 3-6 month buyers are barely breaking even.

The same 13%, in a very different market

In mid-to-late July 2025, CryptoQuant data showed short-term holders in the 1-3 month bracket carrying almost the same average unrealized profit, about 13%. Bitcoin was trading above $118K back then, and that cohort’s realized purchase price sat around $104K.

CryptoQuant analysts argued at the time that thin profit margins can actually limit panic selling. Their logic: when buyers sit only slightly above their entry price, they have little incentive to cash out early. Aggressive selling tends to show up only when the price slips below the cohort’s cost basis, which in July 2025 meant a drop under $104K.

How this cycle compares to past tops

Historical data puts the current gains in perspective. At the 2012 market peak, short-term holders sat on average profits of 232%. At the 2021 top, the figure was 150%. The 2025 cycle peak reached just 69% by the same measure.

What this means for the market

The $73.3K level matters because it sits so close to the 3-6 month cohort’s cost basis of roughly $73.19K. A cost-basis level like that often works as a pivot. Above it, the level can act as support, since holders defend their breakeven. Below it, the same level can turn into resistance, as trapped buyers sell into any rally to escape.

That makes the $63K to $73K band the zone to watch. If Bitcoin holds above it, the short-term holder base stays mostly profitable. If the price slides back into or below that range, the 13% cushion disappears quickly, and the risk of capitulation rises.

Across 2026, short-term holder profitability streaks and cost-basis levels have become common tools for judging whether the market is recovering. The reason is simple: they measure pain directly. Price tells you where the market is. Cost basis tells you how many people are hurting at that level.

The 13% figure also shows how much the market has reset. In July 2025, the same margin came with a six-figure price tag and a $104K cost basis. Now it arrives with Bitcoin in the low $70K range.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.