PlayStation is encouraging PS4 players to upgrade to PS5 as analyst predicts PS6 won't arrive until after 2028

The games industry is in a very weird place right now due to both internal and external factors. Perhaps the most pressing one is the rising cost of key hardware components due to AI and data centre speculation. Therefore, next-gen hardware delays could be on the table as Sony and Microsoft look to maximize PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, respectively, while waiting markets to settle.

Via IGN, we're now hearing from David Gibson, senior analyst at MST, who focuses on tech and gaming companies. He published a report for Sandstone Insights Japan on 16th of this month that commented on Sony's recent financial performance and what might be next for the tech giant.

The good news (for Sony) is that earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending February 2026 are expected to exceed previous forecasts. First- and third-party games continue to drive growth, and it appears PSN subscriptions remain strong, too. Per IGN's report, "Q3 sales are predicted to total around 1.8 trillion yen (approx. $11.6 billion), with operating income at 160 billion yen (approx. $1 billion)."

Good numbers around PS5 hardware and software only makes the case for a delay of PS6 even more convincing. "Sony expects the PS5 lifecycle to be longer than that of previous console generations," Gibson stated, before adding it's likely the PS6's launch won't occur until after 2028. Industry figures had been predicting a 2028 release last year. This would already make the PS5 generation longer than PS4's seven-year exclusive run (though the hardware is still being supported). If a market-induced does occur, PS5 will spend even more time being Sony's top-dog console.

Recent moves by the company suggest that might indeed be the case, with a Japan-only, cheaper PS5 model launching last November and deep discounts happening globally for Black Friday 2025. Via Push Square, we're also seeing reports of PS4 users being targeted by Sony with aimed messages that encourage making the jump to PS5.

Gibson, however, also thinks Sony is now focusing on retaining existing PS5 users over boosting console sales (even if those remain strong). At the time of writing, price hikes haven't been announced in answer to memory shortage woes, but the analyst admits "Sony might pass future cost increases onto consumers" even if there's no short-term danger. This would line up with Nintendo's current stance on the matter. Therefore, solid growth well into 2026 is likely for Sony and Nintendo. On the other hand, Xbox sales in 2025 were lackluster, so there are doubts around Microsoft's consoles' performance moving forward.