Our Final Predictions For Oscars 2026's Best Supporting Actor Lineup: Who Will Win?

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Sean Penn in One Battle After Another, Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value, Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners with the Oscars statue

The Best Supporting Actor race for the Oscars 2026 is highly competitive. Here's our final analysis of the category and winner prediction.

Updated Mar 12, 2026, 8:01 AM EDT

Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.

He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.

Screen Rant's Oscars 2026 coverage continues with a look at Best Supporting Actor, which is one of the more competitive categories at the 98th Academy Awards. After Kieran Culkin won for A Real Pain last year, it's my honor once again to provide insight into this race.

The Best Supporting Actor lineup, as confirmed with the 2026 Oscar nominations, consists of Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). And picking who is going to win has become a real toss up.

But with the Oscars ceremony coming on Sunday, it's time to make final predictions for who is going to win Best Supporting Actor. Spoiler alert: there's a new name at the top.

Commentary and predictions updated on March 11

5. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

The Creature dressed in fur in Frankenstein

Jacob Elordi has had quite the journey this award season. He was an unlikely nominee, then viewed as a legit threat to win Best Supporting Actor, and now is back to looking like a long shot by the end. His hope largely rests on his win for Best Supporting Actor at the Critics' Choice Awards catapulting him to the top.

But after not winning at the Golden Globes, Actor Awards, or BAFTA, Elordi will likely have to settle for being happy to be an Academy Award-nominee after Frankenstein. Perhaps this will just fast-track him winning for another performance sooner than later.

4. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

Bob and Sensei bowing at each other as Sensei gives him his rifle in One Battle After Another

Benicio del Toro entered the busiest portion of awards season as one of the biggest contenders to win Best Supporting Actor. He remained a major part of the conversation thanks to nominations at BAFTA, CCA, the Globes, and the Actors. However, he didn't win at any of them.

Rather than looking to be a real threat to win his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar (25 years after Traffic), del Toro looks to be more on the outside of the race in its final stage. His One Battle After Another co-star is certainly a stronger contender between them, so it seems that is where those looking to support Paul Thomas Anderson's film will turn in this category.

3. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Stellan Skarsgård half smiling in Sentimental Value

After previously predicting Skarsgård to win Best Supporting Actor, I'm coming off that stance now. He does have a Golden Globe win under his belt, giving him some precursor attention, but that was a long time ago. Skarsgård figured to be the BAFTA winner, which didn't happen, and knocks him back to the middle of this race.

What could aid Skarsgård in this category, though, is the overall reception of Sentimental Value. He is one of the film's best shots to win an Oscar, so the Academy's efforts to add more international voters in recent years could pay dividends for him. Should anyone be looking to spread votes beyond One Battle After Another and Sinners, he becomes one common option.

The career narrative of Skarsgård's candidacy should also help, too. He's a widely respected and celebrated actor with decades of experience. He's not a previous winner or someone who voters could see as having an entire lifetime ahead of them to compete for more Oscars. I'd still give Skasgård a chance to win, just not a high one.

2. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

Delroy Lindo's recognition was one of the best Oscars 2026 nomination surprises. He earns his first Academy Award nomination for Sinners even though he didn't secure recognition from any of the major precursors. And while that would typically suggest he's not a real threat to win, this appears to be a special case where it is more realistic.

The love for Sinners could spread to Lindo in this category. While this is his first Oscar nomination, he has an entire career of celebrated work, which could make voters look at this as an opportunity to recognize not only an outstanding singular performance but the strength of decades of work.

The data doesn't support Lindo as a legit threat to win, but it's basically a toss-up in my mind. And with such a close call, I'm leaning slightly toward the performance that has been more widely celebrated.

Predicted Best Supporting Actor Winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw (Sean Penn) in uniform and looking solemn in One Battle After Another

Sean Penn has the most cache with the Oscars among this Best Supporting Actor lineup. This marks his sixth acting nomination, albeit the first in supporting. He's also a two-time Oscar winner thanks to Mystic River and Milk. His standing within the industry and praise for his One Battle After Another performance netted him wins at the Actor Awards and BAFTA, following nominations at CCA and Globes.

Those are all reasons why Penn is now my predicted Best Supporting Actor winner. He has a proven track record with voters and the most major precursor wins. Penn also gives arguably the best performance in One Battle After Another, which enters the night as one of the top two strongest Best Picture contenders at worst.

Perhaps Penn and del Toro will cancel each other out somewhat during the final voting, allowing someone like Lindo to swoop in and win, but my belief is he'll have enough support to win at the Oscars 2026. Should it happen, he will become a rare three-time winner within all acting categories.

ScreenRant's additional Oscars predictions: