Our Final Predictions For Oscars 2026's Best Actor Lineup: Who Will Win?

3 weeks ago 13

Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent, Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme, and Michael B. Jordan in Sinners with the Oscars statue

There are several stars vying for Best Actor at the Oscars 2026. Here's our final prediction for who will win among the confirmed lineup of nominees.

Updated Mar 11, 2026, 4:31 PM EDT

Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.

He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.

Some of Hollywood's biggest stars are vying to win Best Actor at the Oscars 2026, one year after Adrien Brody was awarded for The Brutalist. I'm excited to once again be in charge of tracking this race throughout awards season for ScreenRant and giving our take on who is going to win.

The 2026 Oscars nominations confirmed the Best Actor contenders are Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent). And what unfolded afterward turned this category into one of the toughest to predict.

Ahead of the 98th Academy Awards taking place on March 15, it's time for a final look at Best Actor and seeing who comes out on top.

Commentary and predictions updated on March 11

5. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Ethan Hawke's Lorenz Hart holding his hands out in humorous disinterest in Blue Moon

Ethan Hawke has earned his third acting Oscar nomination for his role in Richard Linklater's Blue Moon. But previous nominations for Training Day and Boyhood (in Best Supporting Actor) did not conclude with Academy Award wins. That will probably continue, as his celebrated performance is at the back of the pack to win.

Hawke is one of two nominations that Blue Moon received, showing some support for Linklater's movie, but not enough to really put him in contention to win. The other four nominees are all attached to Best Picture nominees. Since the category expanded to the current 10-film lineup in 2009, only two Best Actor winners have come from non-Best Picture-nominated movies: Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart).

After coming up short at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, BAFTA, and Actor Awards, there's no real momentum for him as a winner. He'd have to be the first person since Adrien Brody in 2002 to win the Best Actor Oscar without one of those precursor victories, and if someone is going to do it this year, it'll be a different nominee.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob in One Battle After Another

Leonardo DiCaprio picked up his seventh acting nomination with his work in One Battle After Another getting recognized. He's one of Hollywood's biggest and most celebrated stars, so he should be considered a sleeper threat to win his second Best Actor Oscar. DiCaprio's lone win came 10 years ago for The Revenant.

Like Hawke, DiCaprio was nominated for but lost at BAFTA, CCA, the Globes, and the Actors. While Hawke has the overdue narrative behind him, I'm putting DiCaprio above him due to his association with One Battle After Another. If members leaned heavily on Paul Thomas Anderson's film while voting, he could garner strong support.

This would also be the Academy's chance to make DiCaprio a two-time Oscar winner. And while more opportunities to do that will come in the future, perhaps they will reward him now instead of making him wait even longer.

3. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Wagner Moura is a first-time Oscar nominee thanks to his performance in The Secret Agent. The Brazil feature has plenty of fans in the Academy, as evidenced by its four nominations, and Moura has been one of the film's most consistent recipients of praise.

Even though he had big misses at the Actor Awards and BAFTA, the actor also won some key precursors. He started winning awards for The Secret Agent last May when he won Best Actor at Cannes following the film's premiere. Moura also won Best Actor - Drama at the Golden Globes, taking it over Jordan, who was the only other future Oscar nominee in that category.

There is no denying the strength of Moura's performance, and there's a real chance that this is the one that lands the strongest among the international voters. After all, there hasn't been a Best Actor winner from a non-English film since 1997 (Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful). While I'm not predicting it, I won't be stunned if Moura's the one who wins the category on Sunday.

2. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Marty Supreme's Timothée Chalamet as Marty Mauser

I've been predicting Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor for months, but I've lost my faith in this outcome as the 98th Academy Awards have drawn closer. Losing at BAFTA was one thing and easy enough to overlook. Falling short at the Actors is a different story.

Chalamet has already proven he could win there thanks to A Complete Unknown last year, and he entered that ceremony as the race's frontrunner, having previously won at the Globes and CCA. His inability to repeat showed he's not running away with this Oscar, and there were issues with how his campaign was going.

His controversial ballet and opera comments came after voting closed, so those will have no bearing on the actual results, but there is a sense that Chalamet's performance didn't click as well with voters. His age, only being 30 years old, is also a mark against him, as the Oscars traditionally make male actors wait longer to become Academy Award winners.

Admittedly, I'm not fully convinced Chalamet isn't going to win the Oscar. He'll still enter Sunday with the most precursor wins in the category, and this could be a moment for Hollywood to crown him as their next big star. I'll be thrilled to be wrong about moving him off the predicted winner spot, even though a loss would also bring a great result.

Predicted Best Actor Winner: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Michael B Jordan looking scared in Sinners

Michael B. Jordan is officially an Academy Award nominee, and now appears on track to actually win the Best Actor category. His performance as Smoke and Stack in Sinners earned him nominations at BAFTA, CCA, and the Globes. But it wasn't until the Actors that Jordan jumped to the front of the pack.

His win for Best Actor at the Actor Awards seems to be a sign of what is coming on Sunday. He delivered an amazing acceptance speech during the final stretch of the Oscar voting window, which may have tipped the scales in his favor. Now Jordan may just become the sixth Black actor to win Best Actor at the Oscars.

The overall support backing Sinners to its record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations could bring some extra love to its leading man during voting. For that reason, I've switched things up and now am predicting Michael B. Jordan to win Best Actor at the Oscars 2026.

My only real hesitancy with this prediction is flashbacks to last year. I predicted Chalamet to win the Oscar after he only won the Actor Awards. That's the same spot Jordan is in now, lacking another precursor win. But, Chalamet this year did not have the same precursor strength of Adrien Brody last year, making MBJ's case a bit more realistic.

ScreenRant's additional Oscars predictions: