Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Actress Commentary (Updated Feb. 5, 2026): We have a best actress lineup of career-defining turns, each beloved for their own distinct reasons and vulnerable in ways the Academy voters love to reward and be passionate about.
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
For Her: A raw, unsparing embodiment of grief as a lived-in condition rather than a narrative device. Buckley navigates the film in elemental sorrow without sentimentality, delivering what many consider the performance of the year, and undoubtedly her career so far. Her second nom after “The Lost Daughter” confirms her stature among the most formidable actors of her generation with adoring respect.
Against Her: The movie’s emotional severity may be eclipsed by those who are scared to engage with it. Despite eight nominations, the film’s failure to secure Paul Mescal a nomination hints at uneven Academy support.
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
For Her: A ferocious, discomfort-forward performance that never softens its edges. Byrne commits fully to a woman unraveling in real time, turning psychological collapse into something uncomfortably familiar. After two decades of exceptional work (i.e., “Bridesmaids,” “Spy”), this marks her long-overdue first invite to the ceremony.
Against Her: The film’s abrasive tone may alienate voters, and with just this single nomination for the Mary Bronstein dark comedy, it lacks broader institutional support.
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
For Her: A warm and calibrated comeback that blends her talents with vulnerability and musical ease. Twenty-four years after her “Almost Famous” nomination, Hudson returns with added gravity and reminds voters that she still has it (and never lost it).
Against Her: The arc may feel familiar compared with more formally adventurous work. With just one nomination, the film failed to generate additional momentum.
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
For Her: Quietly authoritative, Reinsve anchors Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama with intelligence and restraint. After missing recognition for “The Worst Person in the World,” her nomination positions the star as one of international cinema’s most compelling contemporary performers.
Against Her: Subtlety can be mistaken for simplicity, particularly in a field favoring loud voices and transformations. Despite nine nominations, the SAG snub lingers as a warning sign.
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
For Her: A fearless performance that leans fully into absurdity while maintaining control that keeps the viewers on the edge. The two-time Oscar winner (“La La Land,” “Poor Things”) continues her run of bold, director-driven choices that make her a default nomination for anything she touches — a strong future candidate to join Meryl Streep and Frances McDormand in the three-timers club.
Against Her: Voters may hesitate to reward her so soon after a recent win. In addition, the film’s tonal extremes could divide viewers. It’s a Yorgos Lanthimos film after all.
Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien. The first out-of-the-gate winner guesses are below.
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Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
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