Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Jan. 29, 2026): February is where the big moves happen.
This year’s Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards ceremony — set for Saturday, Feb. 8 — lands just 10 days after the Oscar nominations were announced on Jan. 22, and notably 19 days before the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards on Feb. 28. The Oscars, meanwhile, will close out the season on Sunday, Mar. 15.
In between, the Winter Olympics kick off in Milan on Feb. 7, providing a global distraction and adding another wrinkle to a compressed awards calendar. Hosting duties for the 78th annual DGA ceremony will be handled by comedian and actor Kumail Nanjiani.
The DGA voting period closes Friday, Feb. 7, just one day before the awards. That proximity to the nomination announcement makes this DGA event particularly influential.
Few films are arriving at Phase Two with more momentum than Warner Bros.’ “Sinners,” which scored a historic 16 Oscar nominations, the most of any film this year. The vampire-tinged period drama earned nods for best picture, original screenplay and directing — each attributed to Ryan Coogler, who made history with his triple nomination.
Coogler’s chances to win at the DGA and beyond appear strong. The DGA has predicted the Oscar winner for best director in all but eight instances since its inception:
- 1968 – Anthony Harvey, “The Lion in Winter”; Oscar: Carol Reed, “Oliver!”
- 1972 – Francis Ford Coppola, “The Godfather”; Oscar: Bob Fosse, “Cabaret”
- 1985 – Steven Spielberg, “The Color Purple”; not nominated for the Oscar
- 1995 – Ron Howard, “Apollo 13”; not nominated for the Oscar
- 2000 – Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”; Oscar: Steven Soderbergh, “Traffic”
- 2002 – Rob Marshall, “Chicago”; Oscar: Roman Polanski, “The Pianist”
- 2012 – Ben Affleck, “Argo”; not nominated for the Oscar
- 2019 – Sam Mendes, “1917”; Oscar: Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite”
Last year, Sean Baker won the DGA’s top honor for his work on “Anora.”
The PGA, which announced its nominees on Jan. 9, concludes final voting on Tuesday, Feb. 3, ahead of its Feb. 28 ceremony. That timing means voters at both the DGA and PGA will be casting ballots during a narrow window, and just days after nominations, and before Oscar narratives fully harden.
Meanwhile, Netflix continues to show strong awards traction with two best picture nominees: “Frankenstein”, directed by Guillermo del Toro, and “Train Dreams”, which earned nods for cinematography, screenplay and song.
The DGA is often viewed as the most predictive guild, especially in the best director category. Should Coogler win for “Sinners,” it would position him as the clear favorite heading into the final stretch. But intense competition remains from Zhao (“Hamnet”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Anderson (“One Battle After Another”) and Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”).
Projected winner leaders (films): “Sinners” (6), “One Battle After Another” (3), “F1,” “Frankenstein” and “Sentimental Value” (2)
Projected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (9), Netflix (4), Apple (2), Neon (2)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Focus Features
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Emilie Lesclaux
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler -
Director
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
Paul Thomas Anderson
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Josh Safdie
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Neon
Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: A24
Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Neon
Benicio Del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Written by Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar -
Casting
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Netflix
“Arco” (Neon)
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
“Elio” (Pixar)
Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino -
Production Design
Image Credit: Focus Features
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ruth E. Carter -
Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. Shawver -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho” (GKids)
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister” (Independent Film Company/Shudder)
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg -
Sound
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirât” (Neon)
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Universal Pictures
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World: Rebirth” (Universal Pictures)
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus” (Apple Original Films)
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean -
Original Score
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson -
Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” (Self-Distributed)
Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Self-Distributed)
Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (Self-Distributed)
Nominees to be determined
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“Sirât” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania -
Animated Short
“Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions)
Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
“Forevergreen” (Self-Distributed)
Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada)
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Retirement Plan” (Self-Distributed) ***
John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
“The Three Sisters” (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures)
Konstantin BronzitOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) ***
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films)
Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
“Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky)
Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)
Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
“Perfectly a Strangeness” (Second Sight Pictures)
Alison McAlpineOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Live Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker
“Butcher’s Stain” (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television)
Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
“A Friend of Dorothy” (Self-Distributed)
Lee Knight and James Dean
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” (Self-Distributed)
Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
“The Singers” (Netflix)
Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) ***
Alexandre Singh and Natalie MusteataOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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