Oscar Predictions: The BAFTAs Just Turned the Acting Categories on Their Heads Before the Academy Awards

Welcome to Collider's FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2026 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.

Update: February 23, 2026

The BAFTAs just shook things up for nearly every acting category at the Oscars. The sole category that continues to keep in line with most predictions? That'd be Jessie Buckley winning Best Actress for Hamnet. Things seemed quite close between Buckley and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You's Rose Byrne at the top of the year, but since the Golden Globes, Buckley has steadily been pulling ahead. Should Byrne take home the Actor Award on March 1, we'll have to revisit this conversation, but at this point, the Best Actress Oscar will likely land in Buckley's hands.

Leading Actor delivered one of the biggest shocks of the night at the BAFTAs. The award didn't go to any of the Academy Award nominees, but rather, Robert Aramyo for I Swear, a film that hasn't been in the awards season race beyond the BAFTAs and the British Academy of Film Awards. In most cases, a surprise win like that wouldn't shake up the Oscar race, but given there were already suspicions that frontrunner Timothée Chalamet's hold on the category was waning, Aramayo's win solidifies the fact that Best Actor at the Oscars could be one of the biggest toss-ups. Of course, things will come into focus more after the Actor Awards, but at this point, I'm predicting Chalamet winds up missing out on Oscar gold again and the statue will either go to Michael B. Jordan for Sinners or Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.

Both Supporting categories saw the playing field leveled on Sunday as well. With Wunmi Mosaku snagging Best Supporting Actress for her performance in Sinners, that means three contenders in the category have won major precursors. Mosaku has the BAFTA, Teyana Taylor has the Golden Globe for One Battle After Another, and Amy Madigan has the Critics Choice award for Weapons. Given Oscar voting opens on February 26, this was the perfect time for Mosaku to take the spotlight. However, the Actor Awards happen on March 1 and Oscar voting closes on March 5, so that'll be a prime opportunity for one of these contenders to make one last push for that Academy Award, especially given their not facing off against nominees Elle Fanning or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at the SAG ceremony.

For similar reasons, Stellan Skarsgård's loss at the BAFTAs is a bit concerning. Given Sentimental Value was completely overlooked by SAG, should BAFTA winner Sean Penn secure another major win, he could be going into Oscar night in pole position. However, I suspect that won't be the case. Penn's been far less front-facing than the other nominees in this category. In fact, he wasn't even at the BAFTAs to accept his award. Sure, that happens, but in an especially competitive year, a presence and powerful speech could have worked in his favor. Should he also win at the Actor Awards, perhaps I'll be singing a different tune, but at this point, I lean toward Jacob Elordi or Benicio del Toro taking home that honor, in which case, Best Supporting Actor will remain one of the most exciting categories to watch on Oscar night. For now though, I'm sticking with Skarsgård. Given the quality of his performance, his body of work and the fact that I have a hard time seeing the film not turn a single acting nomination into a win, I'm holding tight to that prediction.

BEST PICTURE

Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson

BEST ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley

BEST ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Michael B. Jordan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Teyana Taylor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Stellan Skarsgård

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Current Frontrunner: KPop Demon Hunters

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Sinners

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another

BEST CASTING

Current Frontrunner: Sinners