How Would The 2026 Oscars Go If Each Movie Could Only Win One Award?

Sinners — Best Picture

At the very top, Best Picture would certainly go to either Sinners or One Battle After Another, just as it will during the actual ceremony. This is really a toss-up, as whichever one wouldn't win here would slot into Best Director relatively easily.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm giving it to Sinners. The record-breaking 16 nominations speak for themselves, and I could see voters pushing it over the top to celebrate all aspects of the film. Winning Best Picture would cap off an incredible release for Ryan Coogler's film.

As a result, Sinners loses eligibility in Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Song, Casting, Sound, Production Design, Costume Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Editing, and Visual Effects.

One Battle After Another — Best Director

With 13 nominations, One Battle After Another comes off the board early on with a win for Paul Thomas Anderson in Best Director. He's been widely celebrated for his work on this film, and he has an overdue narrative behind him. Specifically recognizing his direction as the heartbeat behind how well One Battle After Another works would make sense.

This removes the film from contention in Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Casting, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, and Editing. But that's a small price to pay to give PTA his long-awaited first Oscar win.

And if you'd rather, give it Best Picture and have Best Director go to Coogler. Either way, the two most-nominated films of the season are taken out of the equation with the two biggest categories.

Marty Supreme — Best Actor

Best Actor is already without two options, Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio, based on the rules at play here. That makes it a lot easier to give the category to Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. He has been the favorite for the award for most of the season, even if he's lost some steam recently.

And considering how much of Marty Supreme rests on his shoulders, his performance is worthy of being the film's only Oscar win. This eliminates it from consideration for Original Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Editing.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You — Best Actress

The first major difference from what is expected to happen on March 15 comes with Best Actress. While Hamnet's Jessie Buckley is the predicted winner and still eligible, giving her the win makes it pretty tricky to follow through on the purpose of this. For that reason, I've looked elsewhere and landed on Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

All the nominees in this category are still eligible to win at this point, but with Byrne having some level of success winning precursors, she's the one I believe would win if Buckley were out of the picture. And since this is If I Had Legs I'd Kick You's only Oscar nomination, the win here is exactly what this process is all about: recognizing Byrne's widely celebrated performance from a smaller film.

Sentimental Value — Supporting Actor

With how the winners have gone so far, Supporting Actor's options are narrowed to just two: Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value and Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein. Both are deserving winners and could very well still win the real Oscar, but I'm giving the veteran the edge. In part, this is to finally make Skarsgård an Oscar-winner, but it is also better for how the rest of the categories can unfold.

With this win, Sentimental Value is taken out of the running for its remaining nominations in Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, International Feature Film, and Editing.

Weapons — Supporting Actress

Picking a Best Supporting Actress winner at this point is very easy, as Amy Madigan is the only one still eligible. All her fellow nominees are from films that won a previous category. And while Madigan becomes the default choice, that was also somewhat purposeful. She's in line to possibly win the real award, too.

As Weapons' sole Oscar nomination, a win for Madigan here and in real life will help bring more visibility to an already successful release. It's also just wonderful to think that her twisted performance as Aunt Gladys would go down as an Oscar-winning piece of acting.

Blue Moon — Original Screenplay

Blue Moon only had two options to win: here and in Best Actor. But with Chalamet taking the latter from Ethan Hawke, the script for Richard Linklater's movie now becomes its chance to shine. It's one of two nominees still eligible at this point, with It Was Just an Accident being the other.

But given the fact that this is Blue Moon's only remaining opportunity to win, it gets the edge. The only disappointment with this outcome would be that Linklater still wouldn't be an Oscar winner, as the script was written by Robert Kaplow.

Hamnet — Adapted Screenplay

After already falling short in Best Picture, Director, and Actress, Hamnet gets its win in Best Adapted Screenplay. Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell's script laid the foundation for the emotional Shakespearean drama and would be a worthy place for the film to get recognized. Zhao is no stranger to the Oscars, after all, but she hasn't won for her writing specifically before.

With this win, Hamnet is removed from consideration for Score, Casting, Production Design, and Costume Design, but the win now keeps fellow nominees in Frankenstein, Bugonia, and Train Dreams eligible in later categories.

KPop Demon Hunters — Original Song

Make no mistake, the Best Animated Feature Oscar winner will be KPop Demon Hunters​​​​​​. But it simply does not work for this exercise to have it win there. The better option is having "Golden" win Best Original Song, which is also certainly going to happen.

While Train Dreams, Diane Warren: Relentless, and Viva Verdi! are still eligible, none of the wins would be quite as rewarding as it going to KPop Demon Hunters. This decision is easier to make knowing that Animated Feature has another strong contender.

Zootopia 2 — Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, and Zootopia 2 are all eligible, and any could be selected as the winner without forcing changes elsewhere now that KPop Demon Hunters is out of the mix. But considering Disney's usual dominance in the category, I'd give the edge to Zootopia 2.

It Was Just An Accident — International Feature

All the Best International Feature nominees except Sentimental Value are still eligible at this point, but only It Was Just an Accident and The Voice of Hind Rajab have this category as their last chance to win something. Either could be chosen as the winner then, but I think Jafar Panahi's French film would hold an edge to win.

The Secret Agent — Casting

Sticking with the international films nominated for the Oscars, The Secret Agent remains as the lone winner option for Best Casting. This is the last award it is eligible for, and with all other nominees winning previously, there's no other choice for me.

That said, you could also easily flip the winner of this category and Best Actor without it impacting anything else, making Wagner Moura the winner over Chalamet. Casting then becomes a chance to recognize the great ensemble assembled for Marty Supreme.

Bugonia — Original Score

Original Score goes to Bugonia at this point because it is the film's last opportunity to win. While Frankenstein is still eligible and has an excellent score from Alexandre Desplat, the other categories it is still alive in include ones that it is more likely to win in real life. For that reason, Jerskin Fendrix's score wins.

Sirāt — Sound

Sirāt surged late in awards season to the tune of two Oscar nominations, with Best Sound becoming its place to win. While F1 and Frankenstein are both still eligible here, the prominent role that sound plays in the movie makes Sirāt more than deserving of this victory.

Train Dreams — Cinematography

With four of the Best Cinematography nominees previously gaining recognition, Train Dreams becomes the default winner. While the Best Picture-nominated film has many great components, the shots achieved by Adolpho Veloso are incredibly stunning. If Train Dreams was going to win only one Oscar, cinematography should be it, regardless of the state of the competition.

Frankenstein — Production Design

Rather than likely winning multiple below-the-line categories, limiting Frankenstein to one win is tough. But for this exercise and how it impacts the rest of the categories, Production Design has to be where it wins. It's also a worthy selection considering the amazing, complex sets built for the production.

However, you could swap it and Hamnet to get a slightly different result, one that would make Guillermo del Toro an Oscar-winning writer after two previous nominations.

Avatar: Fire and Ash — Costume Design

With Frankenstein now off the board, Avatar: Fire and Ash remains the last movie standing for Best Costume Design. While so much of the movie was achieved using visual effects, the intricate and detailed outfits worn by the Na'vi showcase why this win is still deserving.

The Smashing Machine — Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling could go several different ways at this stage. The Smashing Machine, Kokuho, and The Ugly Stepsister are all still eligible, as this is the only place each was nominated. With any of them able to win, I imagine the higher visibility that came with The Smashing Machine would give it the edge, as the transformation of Dwayne Johnson was spectacular.

F1 — Editing

After F1's surprise Best Picture nomination, the movie finally finds a chance to win with Best Film Editing. It's the only nominee still around following early wins for Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value. This result had to happen to make everything work, but it's also deserving.

The Lost Bus — Visual Effects

Lastly, Best Visual Effects holds two different options: Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus. This was the only place both movies were nominated, so the winner can go either way. While the CGI-heavy nature that comes with a dinosaur movie, the Academy tends to favor more practical, less obvious uses of VFX, which would probably give The Lost Bus the win.

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That's just one of many ways the 2026 Oscars could go if each movie could only win one Oscar. If you go through the exercise yourself, be sure to share the final results!