Goldman Sachs Names Teradyne (TER), Applied Materials (AMAT), AMD (AMD) as Top Semiconductor Picks

Key Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs declares technology sector valuations have reached their most compelling levels in more than 20 years, with PEG ratios falling beneath global market benchmarks
• The investment bank highlights Teradyne, Applied Materials, and AMD as premier semiconductor investments ahead of first-quarter earnings reports
• KLA Corp, Onsemi, and Arm Holdings receive negative outlooks for the upcoming earnings cycle
• Goldman dismisses bubble concerns, noting valuations remain significantly below 2000 dot-com bubble extremes
• Elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions could paradoxically favor technology equities given their limited cyclical exposure

Goldman Sachs is issuing a bold contrary view on technology equities, asserting that the recent market correction has driven valuations to their most attractive territory in more than two decades. Simultaneously, the firm is identifying clear winners and losers within the semiconductor space as Q1 earnings approach.

Peter Oppenheimer, the bank’s chief global equity strategist, highlights that the technology sector’s price-to-earnings-to-growth metric has dropped below the worldwide market average. This type of valuation reset hasn’t occurred since the recovery phase following the dot-com collapse between 2003 and 2005.

Technology equities have significantly underperformed the broader market indices in recent months. Investment flows have shifted toward energy, industrials, and healthcare sectors, pushing previous market champions substantially below their peak levels.

Goldman’s research emphasizes that the global information technology sector currently commands a price-to-earnings valuation below consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and industrial sectors. This represents an unusual reversal of typical valuation hierarchies.

Despite lackluster stock performance, Wall Street analysts have continued upgrading forward earnings projections for technology companies. Goldman characterizes this as an “unprecedented divergence between price performance and fundamental earnings momentum.”

The firm explicitly rejects bubble characterizations. Present valuations sit well beneath the extremes witnessed before the 2000 market collapse and the 1970s Nifty Fifty era. Additionally, the absence of a surge in technology IPO activity signals a more disciplined market environment, according to Goldman.

Goldman’s Preferred Semiconductor Investments for Q1

Within the chip sector, Teradyne represents Goldman’s strongest conviction buy recommendation. The firm anticipates positive surprises on both earnings results and forward guidance, propelled by robust tester demand spanning computing, optical, and memory applications. Analysts also identify opportunities for market share expansion in GPU testing equipment.

Applied Materials earns a buy rating as well. Goldman highlights accelerated capacity deployments in DRAM and foundry operations as primary catalysts. With approximately 60% revenue exposure to etch and deposition technologies, the bank projects additional valuation expansion potential.

Applied Materials, Inc., AMAT

Advanced Micro Devices completes the bullish trio. Server CPU demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure buildouts should deliver a modest earnings beat, even as personal computer softness provides a partial headwind.

Semiconductor Names Goldman Flags as Risky

KLA Corp receives a cautious assessment despite recent positive reception at its investor event. Goldman notes that current equipment capital expenditure patterns favor DRAM applications, where inspection intensity remains comparatively low, creating a competitive disadvantage for KLA relative to industry peers.

Onsemi confronts challenges from concentrated automotive segment exposure, alongside pressure in both image sensor and silicon carbide product lines.

Arm Holdings maintains a sell rating from Goldman. The firm projects an inline quarterly result, constrained by smartphone-related weakness.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Goldman suggests that rising crude oil prices and Strait of Hormuz maritime risks may redirect capital flows toward technology equities. The bank contends that tech sector cash flow generation demonstrates relative immunity to economic cycles while maintaining elevated sensitivity to declining bond yields.

Goldman’s most recent analysis reveals that earnings revision breadth for technology surpasses every other sector in the current market environment.