Golden Globes 2025: First Predictions With Movie Musicals, A-List Stars and Hit TV Shows Vying for Recognition

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Golden Globes Predictions:
Film & TV Categories

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 1, 2024): November is here, which means awards season is heating up with the approach of crucial precursors and guild awards nominations. Among the most anticipated is the Golden Globes, which will celebrate its 82nd ceremony this January.

The submission deadline for film and TV entries is Monday, Nov. 4, and the race is wide open. This year’s field promises a mix of beloved and breakout movies and programs, attracting Hollywood’s biggest stars to the competition.

On the film side, the comedy and musical categories are shaping up to be exceptionally competitive. Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez,” Neon’s “Anora” and Universal’s “Wicked” are expected to vie for the top prize, with stars like Karla Sofía Gascón, Mikey Madison, and Cynthia Erivo in contention. Interestingly, the lead comedy actor category seems less crowded. Jesse Plemons, who won Cannes’ best actor award for his role in “Kinds of Kindness,” leads the charge and could bolster his Oscar prospects with a win.

That differs in the drama categories. The lead actor race is packed with talent, including Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”). For lead actress, names like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) are likely to have their nominations locked and loaded. With the expansion to six slots in every category, there’s room for surprises.

Supporting actress is another field to watch, with potential nods for Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), and Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”), possibly occupying an entire category. And despite disappointing reviews and box office numbers for “Joker 2,” Lady Gaga could still snag a nomination for her acting or the original song “Folie à Deux.” Imagine the ratings with these four powerhouses.

The supporting actor category also boasts strong contenders, such as Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), who could be battling it out all season long. Known for their occasional “outside-the-box” picks, Globe voters could go with someone like Josh O’Connor from “Challengers,” possibly alongside co-star Zendaya in lead actress and the film in best picture (comedy).

Turning to TV, recent Emmy winners like FX’s “Shogun,” HBO/Max’s “Hacks” and Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” look solid for noms. However, the Globes’ voters have a soft spot for new releases. Netflix’s miniseries “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” NBC’s upcoming mockumentary “St. Denis Medical,” and Apple’s summer hit “Presumed Innocent” may also emerge in various categories. Returning favorites and familiar IP like Netflix’s “Squid Game,” Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” and HBO/Max’s “The Penguin,” featuring Colin Farrell, are sure to make an impact.

And we have the second year for the cinematic box office achievement and stand-up comedy categories to consider, likely to have movies like “Inside Out 2,” now the highest-grossing animated film of all time, and comedians like Adam Sandler, and even Globes host Nikki Glaser, hoping for mentions.

The new membership of the Golden Globes has improved the quality and diversity of choices.

In 2020, the Globes faced scrutiny over diversity, transparency, and ethical practices within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). Since then, the organization has implemented a comprehensive reform process to enhance inclusivity, accountability, and transparency. Last year’s ceremony attracted roughly 10 million viewers across all platforms with seven days of delayed viewing, marking the largest audience since 2020, per Nielsen.

Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirshner of White Cherry Entertainment are returning as executive producers and showrunners for the 2025 awards telecast. Dick Clark Productions will produce the event. The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, Jan. 5, and will be hosted by Nikki Glaser.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

Variety parent company PMC owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.