GE Vernova (GEV) Stock Slips Despite Raised 2026 and 2028 Revenue Guidance

TLDR

• GE Vernova raised 2026 revenue guidance to $44.5 billion from $41.5 billion and 2028 guidance to $56 billion from $52 billion
• Fourth quarter orders hit $22.2 billion, crushing sales of $11 billion and analyst expectations
• Q4 Ebitda came in at $1.2 billion, slightly below Wall Street’s $1.3 billion estimate
• Stock fell 1.3% after initial 6% jump as investors wanted stronger 2025 profit guidance
• Prolec acquisition closing weeks ahead of schedule, adding to 2026 revenue boost

GE Vernova dropped on Wednesday despite lifting its revenue targets for both 2026 and 2028. The stock opened up 6% before giving back gains to close down 1.3% at $683.91.

GE Vernova Inc., GEV

The power generation company reported fourth quarter Ebitda of $1.2 billion on sales of $11 billion. Analysts had projected $1.3 billion and $10.6 billion respectively.

The miss on Ebitda didn’t tell the whole story. Orders came in at $22.2 billion, crushing the $11 billion in sales and BofA analyst Andrew Obin’s $17.6 billion estimate.

Those strong orders led management to boost guidance. The company raised 2026 revenue expectations to a midpoint of $44.5 billion from $41.5 billion. The 2028 target moved up to $56 billion from $52 billion.

This marked the second guidance increase in less than two months. GE Vernova had just provided 2026 and 2028 outlooks at a December event.

The new orders came with better margins. Management expects 2026 Ebitda margins around 12%, up from 8.4% in 2025. By 2028, margins should hit 20%, translating to about $11.2 billion in Ebitda.

Profit Guidance Falls Short

The stock’s reversal likely stems from 2025 Ebitda guidance. The company’s outlook implies $5.34 billion for the year. Wall Street wants $5.47 billion.

Starting from a high bar didn’t help. Shares had climbed 95% over the prior 12 months. The stock trades at 51 times forward earnings.

Fourth quarter revenue grew 3.8% to $10.96 billion, beating the $10.22 billion consensus. The power unit saw orders jump 78%, with gas power equipment orders tripling year-over-year.

Data centers accounted for roughly one-third of fourth quarter turbine orders. Utilities are also shifting toward natural gas to meet rising electricity demand.

Strong Performance Across Divisions

Wind orders climbed 55% despite revenue declining in that segment. The electrification division posted a 55% increase in orders with revenue up 36%.

Net income hit $3.67 billion compared to $484 million a year earlier. A $2.57 billion tax benefit boosted the bottom line. Earnings per share of $13.39 crushed estimates of $3.28.

The Prolec acquisition will close in the coming days instead of mid-2026 as originally planned. The faster closing drove some of the 2026 revenue increase.

CEO Scott Strazik said the company’s “platform of advanced solutions is well-positioned to serve the growing, long-cycle electric power market.” He focused on execution as the main concern with strong industry tailwinds at the company’s back.

About 69% of analysts rate the stock a buy, above the S&P 500 average of 55%. The average price target sits at $768, up $76 since the December investor event. Obin maintains a buy rating with an $804 target.

The company now expects 2026 revenue between $44 billion and $45 billion, with the Prolec deal accounting for part of the increase. The 2028 forecast of $56 billion reflects continued growth across all business segments.