Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): This category is keeping awards pundits up at night.
Amy Madigan delivers a haunting, zeitgeist-level performance in Zach Cregger’s blockbuster horror film “Weapons.” She enters the Oscars as the critics’ darling, having swept most of the season’s precursors, including the Critics Choice and SAG Awards. But she faces two notable hurdles: missing out on a BAFTA nomination in a six-nominee field — a historically significant predictor of Oscar success — and being her film’s sole nominee.
In the past 25 years, only five actors have won as their film’s only contender. The last supporting actress to do so was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008). Those wins typically carried strong external narratives — overdue recognition, biopic subject matter, or unconventional category placement. Madigan, making her second Oscar bid 40 years after her first for “Twice in a Lifetime,” has none of these advantages.
The competition comes in the form of two outstanding women from the two best picture frontrunners. Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe-winning turn in “One Battle After Another” positions her as the only nominee in her category to sweep all four major televised precursors. Wunmi Mosaku, meanwhile, claimed a BAFTA for her work in “Sinners.”
If Madigan prevails, she will become the second-oldest winner in this category at 75, trailing only Peggy Ashcroft, who was 77 when she won for “A Passage to India” (1984), and surpassing Josephine Hull, 74, for “Harvey” (1950).
With Taylor and Mosaku in contention, the Oscars could deliver a historic milestone with three consecutive wins for Black women in the same acting category. Should Taylor or Mosaku triumph, they would follow Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) and Afro-Latina Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”), marking the first time in the Academy’s 98-year history this has occurred.
Despite acclaim for Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” its double nominees Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are unlikely to unseat the top three contenders.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
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Image Credit: Warner Bros.
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