Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Actress Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): The best actress race is, on paper, one of the strongest lineups in recent memory. Yet the conversation has effectively been settled for months. Jessie Buckley’s towering work in Chloé Zhao’s Shakespearean grief drama “Hamnet” has swept the major precursors and dominated the awards conversation, transforming the category into something less about suspense and more about admiration.
Which leaves the real debate: who finishes second?
Rose Byrne delivers a ferocious, discomfort-forward performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” committing fully to a woman unraveling in real time. Kate Hudson offers a very different narrative with “Song Sung Blue,” returning to the Oscars 24 years after “Almost Famous” (2001). Renate Reinsve anchors “Sentimental Value” with quiet authority in Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama. And then there’s Emma Stone, the two-time winner for “La La Land” and “Poor Things,” who once again embraces bold absurdity in Yorgos Lanthimos’s “Bugonia.”
While the debate may rage over second place, Buckley is running away with the season, and rightly so.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
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Image Credit: A24
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