Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio Gain Late Momentum as Timothée Chalamet Fades

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Actor Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): Michael B. Jordan’s win at The Actor Awards was critical.

Not only for his personal campaign — with presenter Viola Davis delivering what may become one of the most memorable reactions in recent awards show history — but also for the broader trajectory of his film in the best picture race.

The result also delivered a decisive blow to Timothée Chalamet’s prospects for “Marty Supreme.” For weeks, his campaign style drew criticism from industry professionals and voters alike, and it now appears he may have to wait a little longer for his first Oscar.

I’ve long believed this season could ultimately belong to four-time nominee Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon,” and that possibility still exists. But one conclusion has grown clearer as the season progressed: Chalamet was unlikely to emerge victorious. The only question left was who would.

With only Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins to his name, Chalamet now occupies the same precarious territory as other early-season frontrunners who ultimately fell short, including Angela Bassett for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and Jack Nicholson for “About Schmidt.”

Still, this race remains unusually open.

Leonardo DiCaprio has strong support within the Academy for his work in “One Battle After Another.” In conversations with voters, his name consistently surfaced as one of the most plausible upset contenders in the category.

Then there is Hawke, who has built decades of goodwill across the industry. His embrace of Jordan after the SAG win only reinforced the affection many in the acting community have for him. The statistics may not favor a Hawke victory, but the support is real. That enthusiasm stretches beyond Hollywood and into the international voting bloc as well. It resembles the type of industry respect that can quietly push a veteran performer onto ballots, much like the admiration that often benefits respected actors such as Amy Madigan for “Weapons.”

And we cannot ignore Wagner Moura, whose riveting turn in the Brazilian thriller “The Secret Agent” captured the Golden Globe earlier in the season. While he missed noms from BAFTA and SAG, distributor Neon mounted an aggressive awards campaign that kept Moura highly visible to voters despite those setbacks. That must have had a positive effect, right?

But momentum matters in the final stretch of Oscar season. Jordan now has it, along with the support of his fellow actors, the largest voting branch of the Academy.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Could Win: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Should Win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Should Have Been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)