Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): After 11 nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson appears poised to finally win an Oscar
Paul Thomas Anderson finally appears ready to hear his name called (at least once throughout the 98th ceremony) for best adapted screenplay.
In 2006, Martin Scorsese finally got his Oscar. After decades of being passed over for films that defined American cinema — “Taxi Driver” (1976), “Raging Bull” (1980) and “Goodfellas” (1990) — the industry threw its full weight behind “The Departed.” The Boston mob drama wasn’t widely considered his best work by cinephiles or critics, but it arrived at the moment when the industry decided it was simply his time. Hollywood loves a coronation. Hollywood has clearly done the work to ensure we don’t let him walk out of the Dolby empty-handed.
The Los Angeles-born auteur behind “Boogie Nights” (1997), “Magnolia” (1999), “There Will Be Blood” (2007) and “The Master” (2012) has amassed 11 Oscar nominations across directing, screenplay and best picture. Yet he has never walked away with the statuette. With three additional nominations this year, the long-awaited breakthrough finally feels within reach.
Oscar history is filled with examples of the “it’s their time” narrative taking hold — the Coen brothers with “No Country for Old Men” (2007), Guillermo del Toro with “The Shape of Water” (2017) and Christopher Nolan with “Oppenheimer” (2023). Whether or not those films represented the absolute peak of their filmmakers’ careers is beside the point. They arrived when the industry was ready to crown them, and their respective races offered little meaningful resistance.
Anderson, now 55, appears to occupy that same territory.
As for the runner-up slot, it could go to either “Hamnet” or “Train Dreams.” In a race driven almost entirely by inevitability, second place hardly matters.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
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Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
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