Bitcoin Advocate Pierre Poilievre Leads Polymarket Odds to Become Canada’s Next Prime Minister

Traders on Polymarket are backing Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, as the successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation on Monday.

Poilievre is expected to replace Justin Trudeau, a known crypto critic. Users have placed approximately $278,000 in bets on Poilievre, giving him a 88% chance of winning the office.

More Political Shifts

The betting market, which launched on December 30, 2024, has recorded a total trading volume of $467,645. This market is projected to conclude on October 20, 2025, the upcoming Canadian federal election.

Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, who has served as Canada’s Prime Minister since 2015, has decided to step down amid increasing pressures from within his party and declining public support. His resignation follows the unexpected departure of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Freeland stated that Trudeau failed to address threats related to Canadian goods from the incoming Donald Trump administration. Liberal Members of Parliament have also intensified calls for Trudeau to resign.

The PM is a known cryptocurrency critic. He has ridiculed the pro-crypto views of his political rival, Poilievre.

In a series of tweets in 2022, Trudeau labeled Poilievre’s cryptocurrency support as irresponsible. He argued that promoting investment in volatile assets like cryptocurrencies could jeopardize people’s savings and does not provide a viable solution to inflation or economic instability.

Under his leadership, the Canadian government faced backlash after attempting to freeze crypto accounts linked to the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests.

In contrast, Poilievre, who is expected to succeed Trudeau as Canada’s next prime minister, soon showed his strong support for Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi).

The politician is also a known anti-CBDC activist; and he believes that the implementation of a central bank digital currency would limit financial freedom for Canadians. Poilievre publicly supports the use of Bitcoin, as well as other digital assets as alternatives to fiat currencies.

“We need sound money again—and also the freedom for buyers and sellers to choose #bitcoin and other technology,” Poilievre said in a 2022 statement.

“Canada needs less financial control for politicians and bankers and more financial freedom for the people. That includes freedom to own and use crypto, tokens, smart contracts and decentralized finance,” he said in a separate statement that year.

Not only supporting cryptocurrencies, Poilievre reportedly invested in Bitcoin ETP. A 2022 report from CTV News said that he owned units of Purpose Bitcoin ETF back then. The exact amount was not disclosed and it’s also unclear whether he still maintains his position in the ETF at this time.

Industry Figures Rally Behind Poilievre

Many cryptocurrency figures have thrown support for Poilievre following Trudeau’s resignation. Commenting on the situation, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, stated that Canadians now have the chance to elect Poilievre.

Thorn described the politician as “one of the smartest leaders in a generation.” He believes that Poilievre could effectively address the pressing issues facing Canada.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also expressed his support following Thorn’s statement. Thorn also confirmed that the Canadian PM front-runner loves Bitcoin.

While Poilievre currently leads on Polymarket, odds on prediction market Kalshi shows mixed results. Kalshi users are weighing on Poilievre and Mark Carney, a prominent Canadian economist and banker.

In a poll created last December, Carney, previously involved in leadership positions at the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, is ahead of Poilievre with 45%. However, a separate poll shows that Poilievre leads with 95%.

While not openly criticizing cryptocurrency support, Carney is skeptical about the digital assets. The former Governor of the Bank of England has advocated for a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency to mitigate risks associated with illegal activities and protect the financial system.