As the 98th Academy Awards approach on Sunday, the latest episode of the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast gathered the full roundtable to dissect what to expect.
Chief awards editor Clayton Davis, TV executive editor Michael Schneider and senior artisans editor Jazz Tangcay discussed the state of the race. From bold calls in the acting categories to the growing strength of “Sinners” across multiple branches as it tries to dethrone the season’s frontrunner, “One Battle After Another,” the trio debated what could happen on Oscar night and which narratives may still surprise the industry.
Here are some of the biggest burning questions from the conversation.
Could “Sinners” dominate the Oscars?
Throughout the discussion, one film kept resurfacing: “Sinners.”
Davis went out on a limb and predicted the film could ultimately win best picture and make a strong showing across several categories, including directing, acting and crafts. He specifically pointed to Michael B. Jordan in the best actor race and composer Ludwig Göransson in original score.
“If ‘Sinners’ starts winning early in the night, it could become one of those steamrolling narratives,” Davis shared.
The film’s technical strength also puts it in contention across craft categories. However, the panel acknowledged that some races remain competitive. Tangcay noted that the film’s strong showing at guild awards has helped solidify its industry support, a key factor when forecasting Oscar outcomes.
Will Paul Thomas Anderson finally win his directing Oscar?
One of the most anticipated potential outcomes of the night involves Paul Thomas Anderson. However, that is not necessarily what the social media landscape as a whole believes.
After multiple nominations throughout his career, Anderson could finally win best director for “One Battle After Another,” beating out Ryan Coogler for “Sinners,” Davis said. After a career that includes “Boogie Nights” (1998), “There Will Be Blood” (2007) and “Phantom Thread” (2017), many voters told Variety it is clearly his time. However, it remains a close race, given multiple conversations with Academy members about who they voted for.
The victory would mirror other long-awaited Academy coronations, such as Martin Scorsese’s win for “The Departed,” when voters ultimately rewarded a filmmaker whose body of work defined modern cinema.
Did the Timothée Chalamet controversy actually matter?
One of the more unexpected topics during the roundtable involved online backlash surrounding comments from “Marty Supreme” best actor contender Timothée Chalamet about opera and ballet.
Schneider argued the outrage cycle says more about the speed of social media than the actor’s intent. “It’s a classic example of something being taken out of context and amplified online,” he says.
Tangcay also emphasized a key logistical point that limits the controversy’s real-world impact: Voting for the Oscars had already closed by the time the discussion erupted online, meaning the conversation is unlikely to influence the outcome in any category.
Is Amy Madigan poised for a career-capping supporting actress win?
The supporting actress category could deliver one of the most emotional moments of the night.
Davis predicted Amy Madigan will win for her performance in “One Battle After Another,” a result that would mark a major career milestone for the veteran performer. Her recent wins on the awards circuit have strengthened the case that Academy voters are embracing both the performance and the narrative surrounding it.
Tangcay noted that voters often respond strongly to late-career recognition, particularly when the performance resonates emotionally. If Madigan wins, it would add another signature moment to an already unpredictable awards season.
How much do guild wins and precursor awards actually matter?
As the roundtable examined the craft races, Tangcay highlighted the complicated relationship between precursor awards and Oscar results. Guild prizes can offer valuable signals, but they do not always translate directly into Academy wins.
“The craft branches vote very specifically within their disciplines,” Tangcay said, noting that voters often prioritize different elements than broader industry groups do.
That unpredictability is particularly evident this year, with films like “Sinners,” “Frankenstein” and “One Battle After Another” competing across multiple craft categories, leaving room for surprises once the envelopes are opened.
Can Delroy Lindo break through in supporting actor?
Another potential acting win drawing attention is the supporting actor category, where Davis predicted Delroy Lindo would win for “Sinners.”
Lindo’s performance has earned widespread praise, and the film’s overall strength in the race could help push him across the finish line. The panel acknowledged that the category remains competitive, especially after Sean Penn won both the BAFTA and SAG prizes, even though he was not in attendance for either ceremony.
Still, if “Sinners” begins collecting awards throughout the evening, Lindo could benefit from that momentum.
Which below-the-line races are still up for grabs?
Beyond the headline categories, the conversation highlighted several technical races whose outcomes remain uncertain.
Among Davis’ calls: In cinematography, the race pits “One Battle After Another” against “Sinners” and “Train Dreams.” Production design could come down to “Frankenstein” versus “Sinners.” The sound category features a three-way contest among “F1,” “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” And in the visual effects category, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” squares off against “Sinners.”
Could the original song race deliver a surprise?
The best original song category also sparked discussion. The race has been tailor-made for “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” to take home. However, the group discussed the category mainstay, Diane Warren, and her relentless pursuit (pun intended) of an Oscar. Warren is nominated for the track “Dear Me” from the documentary about her life, “Diane Warren: Relentless,” but the group agreed she will need to wait a little longer.
“Her inevitable Susan Lucci moment will be spectacular when it happens,” Davis said. “It won’t be this year.”
Reflecting back on a season of conversations on the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast.
This cycle of the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast, which focused on the road to the 98th Academy Awards, featured a barrage of notable guests and nominees across its run.
Among the season’s interview highlights: Triple nominee Ryan Coogler discussed making Oscars history with “Sinners,” while his lead actor nominee Michael B. Jordan called the film “the second hardest thing” he has ever done.
Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) reflected on his first Oscar nomination and discussed the career that has placed him alongside legends such as Robin Williams and director Lars von Trier. His nominated co-stars — Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — also opened up during their respective episodes about their journeys working with Joachim Trier and the exciting acting roles ahead.
Veteran Amy Madigan spoke about falling in love with her iconic character Aunt Gladys in “Weapons,” the excitement of returning to the Academy Awards after 40 years, and even sharing cigarettes with “The Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura.
Speaking of Moura — who also turned heads with his Variety feature interview — the actor discussed the timely nature of his Brazilian thriller, gearing up to get behind the camera later this year, and why Americans should pay close attention to what’s happening with President Donald Trump.
Comebacks were also a major theme this year, including Kate Hudson, who returns to the ceremony 24 years after her inaugural nomination for “Almost Famous” (2001). Nominated for her work in “Song Sung Blue,” she opened up about making new music and the kind of movie she’d love to make with her mother, Goldie Hawn.
Ethan Hawke reflected on his long, respected career, which brought him back to reunite with Richard Linklater for his nominated turn in “Blue Moon.” The film’s nominated screenwriter, Robert Kaplow, shared the experience of watching the Oscar nominations alone from his home in New Jersey.
The talents behind “Hamnet” were also well represented. Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao, who is enjoying two career nominations this year, discussed diving into the psyche of the Shakespearean grief drama. Her best actress frontrunner Jessie Buckley spoke about the cathartic nature of stepping into the role of Agnes and how she channeled the grief of a mother losing a child.
The podcast also welcomed its first casting director guest, Francine Maisler, nominated for “Sinners,” who could also become the first winner in the category’s inaugural year. The film’s cinematographer, Autumn Durald Arkapaw, also joined following her historic nomination as the first woman of color nominated in the category, discussing what the recognition means for her career.
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” director Kaouther Ben Hania spoke about the responsibility of bringing her international feature-nominated drama to life, using the real recordings of the slain 5-year-old girl, and what she hopes audiences take away from the film.
Documentary producer Tig Notaro also stopped by our studio after landing her first career nom for the emotionally moving “Come See Me in the Good Light,” and what this moment means for her, and the legacy of her dear friend, Andrea Gibson, the subject of the film.
Other awards hopefuls who appeared during the season included Kate Winslet discussing directing “Goodbye June” in her 50th year, Cynthia Erivo reflecting on hanging up the “Wicked” broomstick and Regina Hall exploring the grief at the center of “One Battle After Another.”
The season also featured conversations with Laura Dern (“Jay Kelly” and “Is This Thing On?”), Emily Blunt (“The Smashing Machine”), Colin Farrell (“Ballad of a Small Player”), Oscar Isaac (“Frankenstein”), Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”), Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”), Hailee Steinfeld (“Sinners”), Mark Hamill (“The Life of Chuck”), Alexander Skarsgård (“Pillion”), Brendan Fraser (“Rental Family”), Will Arnett (“Is This Thing On”), Tonatiuh (“Kiss of the Spider Woman”), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”) and Nina Hoss (“Hedda”). Directors and craftspeople were also represented, including Jon M. Chu (“Wicked: For Good”), Craig Brewer (“Song Sung Blue”) and James Gunn (“Superman”).
Variety’s “Awards Circuit” podcast, hosted by Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay, Emily Longeretta and Michael Schneider, who also produces, is your one-stop source for lively conversations about the best in film and television. Each episode, “Awards Circuit” features interviews with top film and TV talent and creatives, discussions and debates about awards races and industry headlines, and much more. Subscribe via Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or anywhere you download podcasts.
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