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The first full week of December 2024 came with a number of awards wins that cumulatively illuminate what direction Oscar voters may go toward, especially the ones that like to pay attention to what critics suggest they watch on the Academy portal.
Starting with the two major international events, the European Film Awards (in Switzerland this year,) and the British Independent Film Awards, what has been all but confirmed, after months of suspicion, is that Cannes winners “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez” are formidable contenders.
The latter Netflix film swept all four major categories it was nominated for at the EFAs, plus a recognition for its editing by Juliette Welfling, leading to history being made with star Karla Sofía Gascón becoming the first ever trans woman to win the European Actress award.
While Jacques Audiard winning European Director does not come as much of a surprise, as the French auteur has long been tipped to be a favorite of the European sect of voters, his win for European Screenwriter over compatriot Coralie Fargeat, who won Best Screenplay at Cannes for her film “The Substance,” is an indication that “Emilia Pérez” is even more of a powerhouse with European Academy members than we realize. Musicals very rarely win screenplay awards. Also worth noting that last year’s big winner at the European Film Awards was “Anatomy of a Fall,” which later received a Best Picture nomination, a surprise Best Director nomination, and won the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.
The big winner at the BIFAs was “Kneecap,” receiving seven awards including Best British Independent Film. Though the Sundance breakout has mostly been written off as being too small for contention in much of the above the line Oscar categories, its success at the U.K. based awards ceremony certifies the Sony Pictures Classics release as a true dark horse for the Best International Feature category after being selected as Ireland’s submission.
More notable in terms of what films could more likely win Oscars are “Anora” winning the Best International Independent Film category and “Hard Truths” star Marianne Jean-Baptiste winning Best Lead Performance at the BIFAs. Both wins reflect a consensus building within the film criticism community as well, where both parties were big winners with the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (Baptiste sharing her Lead Performance win with “Anora” star Mikey Madison.)
A seemingly foreboding fact is the last time the New York Film Critics Circle and the LAFCA had the same Best Actress winner who did not go on to receive an Oscar nomination was in 2008, when both groups awarded Sally Hawkins for her performance in “Happy-Go-Lucky,” another Mike Leigh film. However, unlike Hawkins at the time, Baptiste has already been nominated for an Oscar, and is dealing with a very different Academy that has diversified and began to favor veteran performers like Frances McDormand and Michelle Yeoh in recent years.
With the foundation of Baptiste not just winning over critics, but the industry professionals that vote on the BIFAs, and have a wee bit of crossover with the Academy, a Best Actress nomination seems a tad more secure, allowing the “Hard Truths” awards team and distributor Bleecker Street to use that momentum to build up more recognition for Leigh’s script and direction as well (for which he was snubbed for at the BIFAs.)
The last two films worth mentioning, who had amazing weekends across the board, making them all the closer to locking in an Oscar nomination or two, are documentary “No Other Land,” and animated film “Flow,” which doubles as Latvia’s submission for Best International Feature. Both films won at the EFAs and with the LAFCA (plus “No Other Land” was actually nominated in the BIFA category that “Anora” won.)
Though both films have their own uphill battles, with “No Other Land” still not having a distributor going into preliminary Oscar voting, and it being an incredibly competitive year for “Flow” to break into both Best International Feature and Best Animated Feature, these recognitions mean it would be shocking if either film did not make the shortlists they are up for come December 17.
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