2025 Oscars: Best Director Predictions

Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.

The State of the Race

Though there are still nominations being announced here and there, the recent arrival of BAFTA and DGA nominations, plus certain films doing very well at the Golden Globes, can point to a few contenders that (for now) feel like a lock for a Best Director nomination at the 2025 Oscars.

For instance, “The Brutalist” helmer Brady Corbet was the big winner at the January ceremony, and has consistently been recognized in just about any Best Director category he’s eligible for. His narrative of taking initiative and standing his ground when it comes to getting final cut, mixed with how well the film is doing at the specialty box office, is a great recipe for winning over the Directors Branch.

“Emilia Pérez” filmmaker Jacques Audiard is another candidate that feels like a given, as the film has so far surpassed many expectations for how well it will do with awards bodies. The French auteur’s Mexico-set musical won both Best Drama and Best Film Not in English at the Golden Globes, leading to plenty of screentime for him on the CBS telecast. Among his peers, the big swing he took with the film is admirable, even if it has sparked controversy with online audiences (which rarely ever have sway over how the Academy votes in general).

Palme d’Or winner “Anora” was completely shut out the Golden Globes, but praise for director Sean Baker hasn’t faded enough for him to not be considered one of the names that is guaranteed an Oscar nomination slot. Similarly, though he was off to a slow start, “Conclave” director Edward Berger has been consistently nominated across awards bodies for his popular Focus Features release.

By our count, that is four white men considered a lock for the one category that has been most under a microscope for its lack of diversity. The DGA Awards have already been criticized for their fifth pick being “A Complete Unknown” director James Mangold, but that was couched by its First Time Director nominees, which were much more diverse. The Academy is not expected to follow suit. More likely, Mangold could be swapped in for Berger, based on the rising popularity of his Bob Dylan biopic.

Remember, this will be the 97th Oscars, and there still have only been three women who have won, and zero Black directors. Although progress has been slow and steady, the Directors branch does seem committed to keeping up their streak of at least one Best Director nominee that is a woman and/or person of color.

Given their recent European lean, the person expected to take that fifth slot is French director Coralie Fargeat, who just earned a BAFTA nomination for “The Substance.” But “Nickel Boys” director RaMell Ross and “All We Imagine As Light” director Payal Kapadia, two critical darlings, are also considered highly deserving potential contenders for the nod.

Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order, below.

Frontrunners:
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Contenders:
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked”
Robert Eggers, “Nosferatu”
Luca Guadagnino “Challengers”
Payal Kapadia, “All We Imagine As Light”
Greg Kwedar, “Sing Sing”
Mike Leigh, “Hard Truths”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Mohammad Rasoulof, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
Denis Villenueve, “Dune: Part Two”