Global box office in 2025 is eyed at a projected $33 billion, according to Gower Street Analytics. This early look at next year puts 2025 on track to come in about 8% ahead of 2024 which the London-based firm currently estimates will conclude with $30.5 billion.
If it holds, the 2025 global forecast would put the year -14% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at historic exchange rates. It is also 3% behind 2023’s full-year result, though if re-calculated using current exchange rates, the 2025 projection would sit 1% ahead of 2023.
For 2025, Gower Street has North America projected to finish 9% up on 2024 at approximately $9.7 billion. This is -16% versus the 2017-2019 average, but 6% ahead of 2023.
The international market (excluding China) is predicted to finish 7% ahead of 2024 at approximately $16.8 billion. That would rep -12% against the 2017-2019 average and -2% against 2023 at historical exchange rates (though +4% when adjusted to today’s rates).
Regionally, Europe Middle East Africa is pegged to come in at $9.1 billion in 2025 (-9% vs 2017-2019; +6% vs 2024), Asia Pacific (excluding China) is eyed at $5.3 billion (-18% vs 2017-2019, +8% vs 2024) and Latin America is estimated at $2.4 billion (-5% vs 2017-2019; +7% vs 2024).
China is currently looking at a $6.6 billion 2025, per Gower Street. Increasingly less reliant on Hollywood product, and due to the limited release calendar at this stage, it remains the hardest market to predict.
“2025 is set to be a strong year for the global box office, fueled by robust studio slates and independent productions,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street Analytics.
“The domestic market is anticipated to approach, and potentially surpass, the $10 billion mark, edging closer to pre-pandemic norms,” added Mitsinikos. “However, product availability is only part of the equation. A strengthening dollar may hinder international box office growth, compounded by evolving socio- economic and political factors that have shaped the box office in recent years.”
“The 2025 release calendar has everything,” said Rob Mitchell, Director of Theatrical Insights at Gower Street. “There are expansions of multi-billion-dollar box office franchises Avatar, the MCU, Mission: Impossible, Jurassic World, John Wick and The Conjuring; the sequel to billion-dollar animated hit Zootopia; the launch of the new DC Universe with James Gunn’s Superman; the conclusion to current box office smash Wicked; multiple live action renditions of beloved family favorites from both Walt Disney and DreamWorks; and a host of other exciting original IP titles from visionary directors such as Bong Joon-ho, Osgood Perkins, Ryan Coogler and Joseph Kosinski. There is huge potential for global breakouts even beyond our current projections.”
Gower Street’s Chief Analyst Thomas Beranek expects greater growth to follow with 2025 “a step forward”; 2026 “is expected to be the breakout year,” said Beranek.
Regarding the current $30.5 billion estimate for 2024, this year felt the impact of the dual Hollywood strikes in 2023, and while Gower had revised its 2024 full-year projection upward to $32.3 billion back in April, it had China in for $7.9 billion. However, the market has suffered economic challenges and diminishing returns from some of the big holiday periods which resulted in the biggest differential between the original and current estimates.
The analytics firm notes that the 2025 is a very early prediction and further changes to the release calendar could result in some fluctuation. There are also a number of Untitled studio releases currently dated which, as more becomes known about these titles, could impact projections.
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