XLM Price Weakens: Can Stellar Bulls Defend Key Support?

TLDR:

• XLM price falls 5.8% in 24 hours and 7 days, testing key support near $0.42.
• Trading volume climbs 5.5% despite bearish momentum, signaling active market interest.
• Analysts warn of weakness if XLM fails to reclaim the 10-day SMA as support.
• Stellar network activity grows with Hana wallet adoption and Balanced DeFi collateral rise.

Stellar (XLM) is cooling off after a strong run earlier this month. The token has fallen steadily over the past day and week, giving traders a reason to watch key support levels. 

Market data shows rising trading activity even as price pressure builds. Analysts now point to critical short-term signals that could shape XLM’s next move. For now, momentum sits on the edge.

XLM Price Action and Market Activity

According to CoinGecko, XLM trades at $0.4257, down 5.80% in the last 24 hours and 5.81% this week. 

XLM price on CoinGecko

The token ranged between $0.4162 and $0.4519 in the past day, while its weekly range hit a low of $0.4047 and a high of $0.4721. Trading volume rose 5.50% in the last 24 hours, reaching $398.7 million, showing an increase in market participation despite the decline.

Crypto chartist Ali noted that XLM recently lost its 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as support.  His analysis indicates that the SMA now acts as resistance, signaling potential short-term weakness. 

If XLM fails to reclaim this level, support around $0.42 becomes critical, followed by $0.38 and $0.34.

Stellar $XLM just lost the 10-day SMA as support: bullish above, bearish below! pic.twitter.com/f3wkMHZhqd

— Ali (@ali_charts) July 29, 2025

Stellar Historical Patterns Suggest Larger Potential

Meanwhile, trader Javon Marks compared the current cycle to XLM’s 2015–2018 run. 

He suggested that a move above $0.79783 could trigger further gains if broader market conditions align. While the price remains far from this target, his outlook underscores the importance of holding above near-term support to keep bullish scenarios in play.

Based on $XLM (Stellar)'s performance in the 2015-2018 bull cycle and the similarities in this one, prices can be preparing here for another >80% upside to and above the $0.79783 level!

Above that level and XLM could push another +900% to a more than $8.00 price point!

That's a… pic.twitter.com/FC0igkrhi0

— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 29, 2025

Despite the price slide, the Stellar ecosystem continues to see activity. The Stellar Summer Rewards program recently concluded, driving thousands of Hana wallet installs and $600,000 in XLM collateral on Balanced DeFi. This steady network engagement offers a counterweight to short-term market pressure.

Stellar’s next move hinges on whether it can reclaim the 10-day SMA. If not, traders may see further tests of lower support zones before any rebound.