The first big weekend of 2026 has arrived with three different major studio movies aimed at three different demos: women, families and guys over 25. However, the tallest of them all is the Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie starring Wuthering Heights from Warner Bros which is eyeing a $70M-$80M global opening after the studio won the MRC title for $80M over its (current) potential future parent, Netflix which offered $150M.
The pic’s release, aptly timed to Elordi’s Best Supporting Oscar nomination for Frankenstein, also reps the first fire-breathing mega wide studio release for Promising Young Woman Oscar winning filmmaker Emerald Fennell at 3,600 locations stateside (looking at $40M to maybe $50M over the 4-day Presidents Day weekend), and another $30M from 11,600 screens in 79 territories. In total, 18,000 screens around the world will be showing Elordi’s Heathcliff and Robbie’s Cathy going kissy-kissy in the West Yorkshire moors (the pic was shot in the Yorkshire Dales). The pic about a couple who plays hard-to-get will be further heighted by such formats as Imax, Dobly Cinema, Drive-Ins, Dine-Ins and premium large format theaters. The feature take of the Emily Brontë novel will unspool in such major markets as France, Korea, Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Spain and the UK.
Lionsgate’s The Housemaid is being looked at as an offshore comp. While that Paul Feig movie (well over $350M around the globe) had a staggered release beginning before Christmas. Adding up similar opening weekends to Wuthering Heights, Housemaid opened to $34.8M.
In U.S. tracking, Wuthering Heights is best with women over 25, followed by women under 25 in both unaided awareness (the polling category whereby those polled cite interest in a movie without being prompted) and first choice. First choice for women over 25 isn’t that far from 2017’s Fifty Shades Darker ($46.6M) and It Ends With Us ($50M). Critics are somewhat in love with Wuthering Heights, but not over the moon at 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Previews start at 3PM in North America for the R-rated rags to riches story about Catherine Earnshaw and her extended love affair with foster brother Heathcliff.
In second will be Sony Pictures Animation’s basketball movie Goat, produced by NBA star Stephen Curry and directed by Tyree Dillihay and co-directed by Adam Rosette. Domestic looks to be around $20M over four days at 3,500 sites. Some rivals believe that the lack of family product since Christmas in addition to the same old-same old Zootopia 2 could overindex Goat past its current projection. Currently, the comp is recent original animated movies such as Disney/Pixar’s Elio ($20.8M). Reviews are solid at 81% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (Elio‘s was 83% certified fresh) and DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys ($23.9M). The PG-rated movie starts previews at 2PM on Thursday. We heard that previews last weekend in the U.K. were strong with $1.8M and that 50 markets (60% offshore footprint) this coming weekend abroad could deliver a result in the mid-teens. Major markets like Germany, Australia and China are going later. Pic’s blurb: A small goat with big dreams gets a once-in-a-lifetime shot to join the pros and play roarball, a high-intensity, co-ed, full-contact sport dominated by the fastest, fiercest animals in the world. Net production cost before P&A is between $80M-$90M+ per sources.
In third is Amazon MGM Studios’ noir Crime 101 from director Bart Layton based on the Don Winslow novel with around $15M over 4-days stateside at 3,000 theaters. Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry and Mark Ruffalo star in a movie about an elusive thief, who is eyeing his final score. He encounters a disillusioned insurance broker at her own crossroads. As their paths intertwine, a relentless detective trails them hoping to thwart the multi-million dollar heist they are planning. Men over 25 are best in first choice followed by women over 25. First choice tracking figures are similar to the Josh Hartnett starring, M. Night Shyamalan thriller Trap from summer 2024 which opened to $15.5M, and they’re ahead of Focus Features’ Michael Fassbender-Cate Blanchett caper Black Bag ($7.6M opening). Previews are Thursday at 4PM for the R-rated pic. Crime 101 will open in 7,000 locations internationally across 60 markets repping 85% of the international footprint. Key markets include the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, and Japan. The international B.O. comps are such dude meat and potato action pics that fare well in Saudi Arabia, Germany, UK, and Spain, read A Working Man and Den of Thieves: Pantera. The movie’s Los Angeles premiere tonight at the United Artists Theatre is a nod to the city where the pic was shot and the iconic 101 freeway that defines its world.
Last President Days weekend at the domestic B.O., led by Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, and Sony/CanalStudio’s Paddington in Peru in second, grossed $179.5M over four days for all titles. Despite the bounty we have here this weekend, we could fall short. The top three titles at their best could do $85M altogether over Friday to Monday. Captain America: Brave New World opened to $100M over four days.
Chinese New Year starts Feb. 17, with traditional celebrations lasting 15 days. It’s our understanding that the some of the Middle Kingdom’s local titles will being their rollouts on Tuesday.
More…
English (US) ·