What to expect on crypto policies depending on US election outcomes

United States citizens are heading to the polls for the last time in the 2024 election cycle to decide which lawmakers will speak for them in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. 

With control of both chambers and the White House essentially up for grabs between Democrats and Republicans, the impact on cryptocurrency and blockchain policies, depending on the outcome of the elections, may be felt for years to come. 

While Republicans had a slim majority in the House from 2023, the Congress was also among the least productive in US history. However, lawmakers passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, and the Financial Technology Protection Act of 2023. 

Some lawmakers have suggested that the bills could pass in the Senate between the US election and when the next session of Congress begins in January 2025, but some will likely face a different Congress with new lawmakers, possibly under new leadership.

Source: Michael Saylor

The bills are just some of many crypto-related issues at stake in the election: leadership of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), currently under Chair Gary Gensler; whether lawmakers should be allowed to invest in digital assets while in office; how crypto-related crimes are enforced at the federal level. Though it draws a lot of attention, the outcome of the presidential race is just one factor when it comes to legislating crypto.

The Senate

Democrats currently control the Senate in a 51 to 49 majority, but 34 seats are up for grabs on Nov. 5. Whichever party controls the Senate controls committee leadership and the legislative agenda — e.g., whether hearings focus on illicit uses of digital assets or the benefits of the technology. 

One of the biggest races for crypto advocates could be the Ohio Senate election between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno. Senator Brown serves as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee and has been one of Congress’s most vocal crypto skeptics. Early November polls showed the race as essentially a toss-up. 

In Texas, where many Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies are located, Democratic Representative Colin Allred seeks to unseat incumbent Ted Cruz in the US Senate. Many industry advocates, including the Texas Blockchain Council, have supported Cruz for his “unapologetically” pro-crypto stance.

Allred has also voted in favor of FIT21 and called on his fellow Democrats to adopt a “forward-looking approach” to digital assets and blockchain technology. Most polls showed Cruz leading Allred by a few points.

Other close races could help flip the Senate to Republicans — between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy in Montana — but several possible outcomes could benefit the industry. Most polls showed Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren favored to keep her seat in response to a challenge by Republican candidate and XRP lawyer John Deaton.

Moreno could defeat Senator Brown, but the Democrats could pick up a seat in Texas, in which case the party would need to choose a new committee chair. Republicans could pick up one seat in the Senate and the presidency, where the prospective Vice President, JD Vance, would act as a tiebreaking vote in the chamber. 

“[T]he prospects of a Senate Republican majority could spur other legislative developments for the industry, especially on the heels of Senator Tim Scott’s announcement of establishing a crypto subcommittee should Republicans win,” Ron Hammond, director of government relations at the Blockchain Association, told Cointelegraph in September.

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency and Democrats lose a seat, they would keep control of the Senate, with prospective VP Tim Walz voting as the tiebreaker. Democratic Senator and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in August one of his goals was to pass bipartisan pro-crypto legislation before 2025, suggesting that a Harris presidency might adopt a similar stance. 

The House of Representatives

Congressional candidates campaigning in 2024 have seen millions of dollars from crypto interest groups funneled into ads supporting lawmakers favoring pro-crypto policies and opposing ones who don’t. Though political action committees (PACs) have spent millions on Senate races in which one candidate supports crypto, the importance of House races should not be overlooked. 

Related: 2024 US elections live: Crypto on the ballot

When polls close on Nov. 5, millions of Americans will have decided who will represent them in 435 congressional districts nationwide. Like the Senate, the House has the authority to move forward with legislation affecting the crypto industry and provide oversight to regulatory bodies like the SEC.

Under a Republican majority, Representative Patrick McHenry chaired the House Financial Services Committee, with Democratic lawmaker Maxine Waters as the ranking member. Both parties were negotiating the terms of a stablecoin bill, but it’s unclear how the legislation could move forward in a new Congress. 

Representative McHenry announced in 2023 that he would not run for reelection, paving the way for Representative French Hill, who also chairs a digital asset subcommittee, to take his place as committee chair. Should Democrats win enough seats to take back control of the House, however, that role would likely return to Representative Waters. 

Regardless of the outcome in 2024, PACs like Fairshake seem to be preparing to support more pro-crypto lawmakers in the next election. The committee announced on Nov. 4 that it had raised $48 million from Coinbase and Andreessen Horowitz for the 2026 midterms.

The Presidency

Donald Trump made several promises to crypto users in 2024, including firing Gensler, opposing the creation of a central bank digital currency, commuting the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, and having all Bitcoin “made in the USA.”

Vice President Harris, who only joined the presidential race in July, hasn’t made digital assets a central part of her campaign like Trump but has said she would support the industry if elected. 

“[...] You’ve got to be very careful of the Democrats if Trump’s pro-crypto,” Trump’s former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci said in an interview with Saxo. “There could be lots of Democrats that are against it just because Trump is for it so I would like to see this calm down. I think we have to depoliticize our regulatory decisions and make them more about right or wrong as opposed to left or right.”

The first polls in the United States close at 6 pm ET. Many experts have speculated that the results of Senate races will likely be called by Nov. 6, followed by the presidential election by the end of the week and the House within days. 

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