US Presidential Election Tops $2 Billion in Betting Volume on Polymarket

Crypto prediction market platform Polymarket has amassed more than $2 billion worth of betting volume to date for its market focused on the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with the tally doubling in less than a month.

A prediction market on whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump will take the White House has amassed nearly $2.05 billion in betting volume as of publication time, Polymarket data shows. Trump has a 62% chance of defeating his Democratic challenger, according to bettors, with Harris sitting at nearly 39%.

Wagers favoring Trump crossed $600 million in total volume as of publication time, while more than $400 million had been put behind Harris. Another roughly $1 billion in betting volume has been placed on other politicians, many of whom either previously suspended their campaigns or had never actually entered the race in the first place.

While the $2 billion mark is noteworthy, that does not mean that billion of dollars' worth of cryptocurrency is currently sitting on Polymarket waiting for the outcome of the election. Much of those bets have already been cashed out, as on-chain data curated by Dune shows that the entire Polymarket platform has approximately $200 million in open interest across all markets.

Some experts believe prediction markets provide a more accurate gauge of election outcomes than traditional polling methods. However, critics say that the markets reflect conservative biases.

Political prediction markets across Polymarket—which is built on Ethereum scaling network Polygon—have gained traction with bettors in recent months, bringing in a staggering amount of wager volume to the platform.

Polymarket's presidential election betting pool has added $1 billion in betting volume in the last three weeks or so, doubling its tally since late September. Meanwhile, a betting pool on which U.S. presidential candidate will win the popular vote has amassed more than $409 million in betting volume, while another on the Fed's November interest rate meeting has seen about $52 million in total wager volume to date. 

Polymarket isn't the only prediction market whose fortunes have grown in 2024. Last month, Kalshi secured the right to offer prediction markets on U.S. congressional races to American bettors following a years-long legal battle with the CFTC.

Edited by Andrew Hayward