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April’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed 115,000 new jobs, roughly double what forecasters had penciled in at around 55,000. May followed with 172,000 additions against consensus estimates of 80,000 to 85,000, making two straight months of labor market data that outperformed expectations by a wide margin.
Unemployment held steady at 4.3% across both months, giving the administration a tidy narrative: tax cuts and manufacturing expansion were working, the economy was reviving, and the skeptics were wrong.
July dismantled that story fairly efficiently. The BLS reported a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, when markets had expected growth. Worse, revisions for the preceding two months subtracted a combined 103,000 jobs from the previously reported totals, meaning the spring surge was smaller than it first appeared.
The unemployment rate did nudge down to 4.1% in July, which the administration flagged as a positive. But a falling unemployment rate alongside job losses typically signals workers leaving the labor force rather than finding employment.
Manufacturing bright spot, but a thin one
Ahead of the August report, the White House leaned into manufacturing as its preferred economic data point. Manufacturing activity reached its strongest pace in more than four years, with more than 18,000 manufacturing jobs added in 2026.
The longer view is harder to spin
Total job creation in 2025 came to roughly 584,000 positions for the year, making it the slowest annual pace of job growth outside of a recession since 2003.
To put that in context: 584,000 jobs spread across twelve months is fewer than many single months of post-pandemic recovery produced. Strong monthly prints in April and May of 2026 looked more impressive when viewed in isolation. Stacked against a 2025 baseline that was already historically weak, the context shifts.
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