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US-Iran peace talks are set to continue in Pakistan this weekend, likely on Sunday. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 are at 36.5%, up from 12% a week ago.
The US-Iran peace deal markets have moved across multiple sub-markets. April 22 sits at 36.5%, April 30 at 50%. The biggest jump is in the May 31 sub-market, now priced at 70%, which suggests traders expect meaningful progress over the next several weeks rather than an immediate resolution.
The ceasefire sub-markets tell a different story. April 21 remains at a low 5.5%. If the ceasefire expires without a resolution, that could pressure the broader talks. The term structure across these markets prices in eventual peace but skepticism about anything happening fast.
The peace deal market sees around $698,114 in daily USDC volume. Order book depth shows it takes $16,317 to move the April 22 market 5 points, which is moderate liquidity. A 4-point spike occurred at 12:18 AM, likely driven by early reports of the talks.
The Pakistan talks are a step toward diplomacy, not a breakthrough. At 15¢, a YES share on the April 22 peace deal pays $1 if successful, a 6.67x return. That bet requires confidence in a quick resolution. Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Pakistan’s role as mediator and any US-Iran joint statements matter, as does potential involvement from the Sultan of Oman or Qatar.
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