US-Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices soar 30%

RBOB gasoline futures surged 5%, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 15% YES, driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market reaction

The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting into global oil supply. Crude oil prices are up over 30% since February 28, with WTI now above $110 per barrel. The WTI Crude Oil April market reflects these shifts, and traders are pricing in further disruptions. The contract resolves on April 30, with odds of WTI hitting $160 at 15%.

Why it matters

The market is thin. A single large trade could move prices significantly, making the contract highly sensitive to news. While face-value volume suggests activity, actual USDC traded is what matters here, and minimal capital is needed to shift odds. The Strait of Hormuz closure threat is the primary driver; any escalation there directly feeds into this contract.

The RBOB futures spike reflects traders expecting prolonged instability in oil supply chains, reacting to immediate supply concerns rather than speculative positioning. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 by April 30, a 6.7x return.

What to watch

Three things will determine whether this contract moves higher or collapses: further developments in the Strait of Hormuz, any OPEC+ announcements on production changes, and U.S. Department of Energy statements on strategic reserves or supply policy.

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