US Bitcoin ETFs notch second-largest daily outflow on eve of election

United States-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded their second-biggest day of outflows in history, just a day before the country heads into a tightly contested election.

The 11 spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw a net outflow of $541.1 million on Monday, Nov. 4, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) the only one to secure inflows of $38.4 million, per Farside Investors.

It is the largest outflow day the ETFs have seen outside of May 1, when the ETFs registered $563.7 million in outflows after Bitcoin fell 10.7% over a week to $60,000.

Bitcoin traders have been trimming back their exposure ahead of the US election on Tuesday, Nov. 5, with Bitcoin falling 4.6% over the last seven days — and 1.7% in the past 24 hours — to trade right around $68,000. 

The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had the largest outflow for Nov. 4, hitting $169.6 million, followed by 138.3 million flowing from the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

Nov. 4 marks the second trading day in a row the ETFs have notched outflows after seven straight trading days of inflows. Source: Farside Investors

Grayscale’s two Bitcoin funds jointly notched $153.2 million in outflows.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with only a handful of net inflow days this year, saw $63.7 million in outflows, while its mini GBTC recorded $89.5 million in outflows — respectively the fifth and third largest outflows for the day.

The trading week ending Friday, Nov. 1, saw $2.2 billion net flow into the US Bitcoin funds, including an outflow day of nearly $55 million to end the week.

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said the inflows for most of the week were driven by “euphoria around the prospect of a Republican victory.”

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“As polls have turned, we saw minor outflows on Friday, highlighting how sensitive Bitcoin is to the US elections at present,” he added.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied in the polls, with Harris leading by 1.2 percentage points according to FiveThirtyEight data from Nov. 4.

Trump’s odds of taking the presidency on crypto betting platform Polymarket also saw a sharp correction, with his odds dipping to a low of 53.8% on Nov. 3 after peaking at 67% days earlier on Oct. 30. His winning odds now sit at just over 59%.

The Republican candidate is the crypto industry’s favorite to win due to his pro-crypto stance, with some traders speculating that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 if he again takes the White House.

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