US and China remain divided on trade truce extension as November deadline looms

The US and China are running out of runway. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that the two largest economies on earth still can’t agree on whether to extend their current tariff ceasefire, which expires on November 10, 2026. In a Bloomberg Television interview on September 21, Greer said the US is open to pushing the truce out by three to six months, but cautioned against expecting any quick resolution.

New York talks: productive but empty-handed

Preparatory discussions took place on September 20 in New York, bringing together US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The meeting was designed to smooth the path ahead of a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for September 24.

US officials described the conversations as productive. They also acknowledged that no major deliverables came out of them.

The current truce, stitched together through a series of agreements between 2025 and 2026, caps tariffs from both sides at approximately 20%.

The sticking points

Several unresolved issues are keeping negotiators up at night. The biggest one: critical minerals. China committed to delivering rare-earth elements and other strategically important materials, but Greer stated bluntly that Beijing’s compliance is “not up to par.”

Then there’s the question of reciprocal tariff cuts. Both sides have been discussing reductions on roughly $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods.

On the Chinese purchase side, Beijing is expected to ramp up buying of US agricultural products and Boeing aircraft. Specific commitments reportedly include 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually and more than 200 Boeing planes.

What’s actually at stake

If the November 10 deadline passes without an extension, the default outcome is a reversion to higher tariff rates. For equity markets, a renewed tariff war would hit multinational companies with significant China exposure, particularly in technology, industrials, and consumer goods. The semiconductor supply chain, already strained by years of export controls and reshoring efforts, would face additional pressure if rare-earth supplies tighten further.

Boeing, meanwhile, is watching these negotiations with particular intensity. An order for more than 200 aircraft from Chinese carriers would represent a significant boost to its backlog. Losing that potential deal to Airbus, which has been aggressively courting Chinese airlines, would be a competitive blow that extends well beyond the current trade cycle.

Greer emphasized that both sides want to keep talking. The Trump-Xi summit on September 24 could provide political momentum for a breakthrough. With the clock ticking toward November, investors positioned in trade-sensitive sectors would be wise to watch the summit’s outcomes closely, because the difference between a three-month extension and no extension at all could move billions in market value within hours.

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