8 hours ago
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Trump is pressing Iran for a deal amid reports the US might extend its blockade. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 are now at 2.2% YES, down from 14% a week ago.
The potential extension of the blockade is dragging related markets lower. The blockade lift by May 31 market sits at 44% YES, down from 58% yesterday and 82% a week ago. Traders are growing more skeptical about a resolution before the end of May. The market for ceasefire extensions by April 22 is flat at 0.2% YES.
USDC volume in these markets: $351,348 traded on the ceasefire extensions market and $322,748 on the Hormuz blockade lift. That’s enough liquidity to reflect real trader sentiment, but the books are thin. It takes only $40,501 and $16,155 respectively to move odds by 5 points, meaning a single large order can cause sharp swings.
For traders, this is more noise than shift. Trump’s call for a deal is counterbalanced by the blockade’s potential extension, which signals ongoing tension. The chance of a formal ceasefire announcement by April 30 remains slim. At 2¢, a YES share pays out $1 if it resolves, a 49x potential return. Believing in that outcome requires expecting an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the next 24 hours.
Watch for Trump’s communications and any CENTCOM statements. A sudden shift in rhetoric or a new diplomatic initiative would be the clearest signal of movement.
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