Trump reportedly in private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring Iran conflict “over”

President Donald Trump is reportedly in private discussions with senior aides regarding the possibility of declaring the ongoing conflict with Iran as “over.” This development comes amid an active conflict that has seen U.S. forces conduct airstrikes on Iranian military targets, with Iran retaliating against U.S. assets in the region. The discussions suggest a potential shift in U.S. strategy that could impact ongoing negotiations related to a potential U.S.-Iran deal in 2026.

The news, originating from a social media report by @Kalshi, indicates a possible de-escalation in the conflict, which has involved regional players such as Israel. Currently, there are no official statements from the White House or the Iranian government confirming these discussions. However, the possibility of declaring the war over could influence the dynamics of diplomatic negotiations, potentially affecting markets that reflect the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being reached this year.

Market participants appear to be considering the implications of these discussions on the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal, especially with regard to the inclusion of terms like Iran Reconstruction Funding. Current market pricing suggests a slight increase in the probability of such a deal, with odds reflecting cautious optimism despite the ongoing hostilities.

Key Takeaways

• The discussions between Trump and his aides appear to suggest a potential move towards declaring the Iran War “over,” which could impact U.S.-Iran negotiations.
• Market pricing suggests a slight increase in the odds of a U.S.-Iran deal that includes Iran Reconstruction Funding, reflecting cautious optimism about diplomatic progress.
• The ongoing conflict and recent military actions indicate high tensions, but the talks could reflect a shift towards de-escalation.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely monitoring any official statements from the U.S. government or Iran that confirm or deny these discussions. Additionally, developments in the conflict, such as further military actions or diplomatic engagements, could influence market sentiment. The role of mediators from Qatar and Pakistan may become more significant if talks progress towards resolving the conflict. Markets will be attentive to any indications of reduced military activity or announcements indicating a formal end to hostilities, which could align with scenarios supportive of a U.S.-Iran deal.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.