Trump considers Iran deal or military action, decision expected Sunday

President Trump is currently reviewing a draft memorandum of understanding with Iran, a one-page document containing 14 key points that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. A decision could come as early as Sunday, May 24, 2026.

The MOU is designed to cease hostilities between the US and Iran, reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, and establish a framework for future nuclear negotiations. Iran is expected to deliver its response within 48 hours.

What’s on the table

Advisors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have played central roles in shepherding the negotiations forward, with Pakistan serving as an active intermediary between the two sides.

Earlier in 2026, Trump issued a notable 10-to-15-day warning for Iran to reach an agreement. A two-week ceasefire in April 2026 offered a brief reprieve but ultimately didn’t hold.

The broader tensions trace back to 2018, when the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Obama-era nuclear agreement commonly known as the JCPOA. The current MOU discussions represent nearly a year of intricate, behind-the-scenes diplomacy aimed at finding a workable off-ramp.

How crypto markets are reacting

Bitcoin recently surged 2.3% to $82,347 following a negative announcement from Trump regarding the negotiations.

Iran’s Nobitex exchange has processed over $2.3 billion on the Tron network and at least $317 million on BNB Chain since 2023. Those numbers illustrate how cryptocurrency infrastructure has become a critical financial lifeline for actors in geopolitically constrained regions. If a deal gets done on Sunday, expect the question of Iranian crypto flows to surface almost immediately in the implementation details.

What this means for investors

A deal would likely remove a significant risk premium from oil markets and could dampen the safe-haven bid that has supported Bitcoin during the conflict. Military escalation would almost certainly spike oil prices, roil equity markets, and potentially send Bitcoin higher. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, is a variable that touches every asset class on the planet.

Traders should expect thin liquidity in crypto markets during off-hours to amplify any price moves triggered by leaks, statements, or diplomatic signals ahead of Sunday’s decision.

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