TrendForce expects declining global laptop shipments to slow manufacturing exodus from China

In its latest industry report, TrendForce has projected that global notebook shipments could witness a decline of a low single-digit percentage in 2027. Laptop manufacturers are also expected to reconsider their production strategies as rising costs make manufacturing outside China less attractive. The share of global notebook production outside China is projected to fall from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 and potentially below 20% in 2027.

The biggest concern is expected to be the shift from component availability to weakening consumer demand, as manufacturers continue to tackle high CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices. The firm also added that if component prices continue to remain on the higher side, brands might pass more of these costs on to consumers.

Notebook shipments are expected to benefit from improved CPU availability and manufacturers stocking up on components in 2026. However, TrendForce warns that it does not directly translate into healthy demand. In anticipation of higher prices, certain customers have upgraded their devices earlier than planned. Essentially, fewer people will be looking forward to buying new laptops in 2027.

Additionally, once inventories purchased at lower prices gradually run out, manufacturers will face greater pressure to absorb higher component costs or pass them on to consumers. Increasing the retail price could further weaken demand, while absorbing the additional costs would squeeze profit margins. Manufacturers could also make changes to specifications, including memory capacity, to control production costs, potentially making their products less competitive.

It is estimated that the CPU, DRAM, and SSD account for approximately 68% of the bill of materials (BOM) cost for mainstream notebooks with a $900 manufacturer’s suggested retail price in the third quarter of 2026. TrendForce said manufacturers are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability simultaneously in 2027.

Rising component costs will continue to put pressure on manufacturers. While DRAM supply is likely to remain tight due to AI demand, NAND flash availability could improve in the second half of 2027. TrendForce says the key challenge will be whether consumers can absorb higher laptop prices. If manufacturers manage to limit price increases by adjusting specifications and absorbing some costs, shipments could decline by a small percentage in 2027. However, if higher costs are passed on to consumers, the decline could reach the high-single-digit range.

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