Top Polymarket whale profits $20M from Trump victory

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Crypto whales, or large investors betting on Donald Trump’s victory, have made millions on the leading decentralized prediction market.

The largest Trump-betting account on Polymarket, known as “Theo4,” earned more than $20.4 million in profit on his pro-Trump bets, according to data shared by Lookonchain on Nov. 6.

Another mysterious whale known as “Fredi9999” made a profit of more than $15.6 million, while a third whale, “zxgngl,” netted over $11 million, according to a Nov. 6 X post by Lookonchain.

During October, 10 whale addresses spent a combined $70.6 million worth of USD Coin (USDC) to place bets on Trump winning the 2024 US election.

On Oct. 18, the main account related to Fredi bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares, Cointelegraph reported. On Oct. 28, Trump’s odds increased to 66%, after zxgngl spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares.

Considering Trump’s projected victory, the profitable payday may be close for the Polymarket whales, since the “market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” according to Polymarket’s disclaimer.

Politics, Investments, Donald Trump, Whale, US Elections 2024

The Associated Press declared Trump as the winner of the 2024 presidential election on Nov. 6 at 10:46 am UTC.

Over 50% of Trump “Yes” shares are controlled by five whales on Polymarket

As of Nov. 4, a day ahead of election day, over 50% of Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on Polymarket were controlled by five mysterious whales.

This could result in a payday exceeding $81 million for the whales, pseudonymous political bettorDomer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post:

“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares -- including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”

In contrast, shares for Vice President Kamala Harris are more distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Harris’ largest shareholder has only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s top shareholder controls 29.1%, Domer added.

At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by one entity with high confidence in a Trump victory, Domer told Cointelegraph:

“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

Decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, as investors are voting with their savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

Magazine: Saylor falls for fake Trump news, Kraken restructures, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 27 – Nov. 2

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