Experts are sounding the alarm about the chance of a “super” El Niño this year, as the latest projections show that the Pacific Ocean is on track for an intense warmup. This could trigger a persistent—or potentially irreversible—climate shift.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, almost every major climate model points to El Niño arriving by May, with average sea surface temperatures on track to rise 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) by early summer. This would constitute a “strong” El Niño, which would have serious implications for global temperatures and weather patterns. But it could be even worse.
More extreme scenarios could lead to a climate regime shift—a large, sudden, and persistent change in the structure and function of Earth’s natural systems. A study published in Nature in December 2025 found that the likelihood of regime shifts significantly increases during a super El Niño, as these events trigger major climate disruptions.
“These shifts matter because they can turn a short-lived climate shock into a longer-lasting risk,” study co-author Jong-Seong Kug of Seoul National University told Inside Climate News.
A record-shattering El Niño?
Some models within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System project temperatures climbing 6.12 degrees F (3.4 degrees C) higher than normal once El Niño fully sets in, according to Tampa-based meteorologist and climate specialist Jeff Berardelli.
Even when the models adjust for the fact that the planet is warmer now than it used to be, this El Niño could send Pacific temperatures soaring 4.86 degrees F (2.7 degrees C) above normal. If that departure holds for three months, this event could surpass the strongest El Niño on record—when Pacific temperatures remained 4.5 degrees F (2.5 degrees C) above average from 1982 to 1983.
James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, told Inside Climate News that even a moderately strong El Niño within the next 12 to 18 months could push the average global temperature about 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) above the preindustrial level. That would exceed the 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) warming threshold that the international community considers a turning point for catastrophic climate impacts.
Hansen said he doubts the global average temperature would meaningfully cool back down below that threshold—even after El Niño dissipates. A super El Niño could trigger an even more severe, possibly irreversible shift.
A new climate regime
According to Kug’s study, a super El Niño “may potentially drive the system into a new state through positive feedback loops or the persistence of climatic memory,” the study states.
Each of the three “super” El Niños on record (including the 1982-1983 event) exerted “profound worldwide climate effects” that substantially impacted ecological and socioeconomic systems. That’s because intense exchanges of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere disrupt oceanic circulation, thereby altering global temperature and precipitation distributions.
These regime shifts led to unprecedented marine heat waves and major changes in drought and extreme heat distribution, particularly in and around the central North Pacific, the southeastern Indian Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico.
The evidence shows that despite the cyclical nature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), “super El Niño events can trigger persistent climate shifts that reorganize regional baselines,” according to the study.
While it’s unclear whether these events are becoming more common due to human-driven climate change, scientists expect their impacts to intensify as the planet warms. Studying the fallout from this year’s El Niño could offer insight into how global warming amplifies—and prolongs—the effects of these climate shocks.
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