- US PC shipments were up 15% in Q1 2025 compared with 9% globally
- Consumers aren't aware of Windows 10 EOS, or just don't want to upgrade
- Businesses are preparing for Windows 10 EOS, but 2025 PC market growth could be low
New data from industry analysts Canalys has revealed PC vendors are stockpiling inventory in anticipation of higher tariffs from the Trump administration, but they're not selling enough to clear their stock.
A sizeable 15% surge in PC shipments was observed in the US during the first three months of 2025, however this also aligned with an excess in inventory, with consumers far less likely to renew their devices this year compared with businesses.
The market outlook aligns with suspicions of higher tariffs, with US PC shipments expected to only grow 2% in 2025 despite strong first-quarter growth.
US vendors are preparing for higher prices
According to the data, inflation from broader tariffs and general economic uncertainty is seeing consumers hold onto their devices for longer than usual.
Canalys expects consumer PS shipments to decline 4% this year, compared with the 8% increase in PC shipments to businesses, largely driven by October's end-of-support date for Windows 10.
Research Director Ishan Dutt explained: "Although PCs currently remain exempt, broader tariffs impacting key spending categories have already resulted in inflationary pressure."
Furthermore, the hype around AI PCs appears to have tamed. High prices, a lack of clear value and confusing messaging is preventing many buyers from hopping on the bandwagon as AI PCs remain in their first generation.
Canalys Research Manager Kieren Jessop explained that poor battery life, slow performance or hardware failures tend to push consumers towards updates , indicating that the Windows 10 deadline may not be as much of a motivation to consumers as it is to businesses.
A March 2025 poll suggested that 14% of customers are now aware of Windows 10 deprecation, and a further 21% don't plan on upgrading as a result.
In the meantime, US stockpiling continues to distort PC shipment figures on a global scale, with Q1 2025 global PC shipments up 9%. Dutt summarised: "This preemptive strategy allowed manufacturers and the channel to stock up ahead of potential cost increases, boosting sell-in shipments despite otherwise stable end-user demand."
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