The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is set to stomp the global box office this week with the biggest debut of 2026 so far, say analysts

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The Super Mario Galaxy Movie stonks (custom) Image credit: Eurogamer/Special Meme Fresh/Universal Pictures

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie finally arrives tomorrow, 1st April, and box office tracking is already looking out of this world. With a five-day weekend ahead of it across the US, Canada, and other international territories enjoying Easter holidays this week, it was easy to see it as the go-to family movie of the early spring season - and fresh data suggests it could be bigger than many expected.

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Via Deadline, we're hearing Nintendo, Universal, and Illumination's giant sequel could likely land around the $350m mark worldwide. That's slightly below the $377m that The Super Mario Bros. Movie grabbed three years ago during its opening weekend, but the expected domestic gross this time around ($175m) should be a notable 1-up over the original's $146m opening. Similar numbers are expected from the rest of the world (but Japan won't be watching the animated flick until 24th April).

Traditionally, sequels exhibit moderate-to-sharp drops regardless of reviews, so it's particularly impressive to read The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is barely seeing any dips, at least during its first few days out. We'll have to wait until early next week to get the final reports on its performance, and then a couple more weeks to see if this behemoth has real legs, but so far, it'll be 2026's first jumbo-sized hit, beating Project Hail Mary ($141m) and Pegasus 3's ($152) global openings by a lot.

Recent online teases and reveals, like the appearance of Fox McCloud (voiced by Glen Powell), straight from Nintendo and Universal Pictures' socials may be boosting interest in the sequel, which seems to be relying a lot on references to Nintendo IPs and Minions-like comedy. Like it or not, the formula clearly worked in 2023 despite the lukewarm reception from critics, so we can't really blame the powers that be for chasing all those golden coins by playing things safe and nostalgic at a time when theatrical audiences are harder to entice.

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