The Mandalorian And Grogu Box Office Debut Exceeds Expectations, Still One Of Star Wars' Worst

3 weeks ago 12

The Mandalorian and Grogu is collecting more of a bounty than anticipated.

Per Deadline, as of Saturday morning, The Mandalorian and Grogu is projected to hit No. 1 at the domestic box office with a 3-day total between $81 and $82 million by the end of its opening weekend and a 4-day total of $91 to $96 million over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. The movie was previously projected to come in significantly below the $84.4 million 3-day and $103 million 4-day debut of the spinoff Solo: A Star Wars Story (not adjusted for inflation), and it has exceeded those expectations while still not matching Solo.

However, it is still tailing severely behind Solo's adjusted 3-day domestic debut of $111.7 million. Unadjusted, The Mandalorian and Grogu is turning out one of the worst live-action debuts for the franchise since 1999's The Phantom Menace ($64.8 million). Adjusted, it is solidly the worst since 1983's Return of the Jedi ($77.2 million). Below, see a breakdown of the box office performance of every theatrically released live-action installment in the Star Wars franchise, both unadjusted and adjusted for inflation:

Title

3-Day Dom. Debut

Adj. Dom. Debut

Worldwide B.O.

Adj. Worldwide B.O.

A New Hope (1977)	$1.5 million	$8.3 million	$775.4 million	$2.076 billion
The Empire Strikes Back (1980)	$4.9 million	$20 million	$549 million	$1.145 billion
Return of the Jedi (1983)	$23 million	$77.2 million	$482.4 million	$1.104 billion
The Phantom Menace (1999)	$64.8 million	$129.8 million	$924.3 million	$1.852 billion
Attack of the Clones (2002)	$80 million	$148.2 million	$656.7 million	$1.216 billion
Revenge of the Sith (2005)	$108.4 million	$185.7 million	$902.9 million	$1.547 billion
The Force Awakens (2015)	$248 million	$349.2 million	$2.071 billion	$2.92 billion
Rogue One (2016)	$155.1 million	$213.9 million	$1.056 billion	$1.46 billion
The Last Jedi (2017)	$220 million	$297.2 million	$1.322 billion	$1.79 billion
Solo (2018)	$84.4 million	$111.7 million	$393.1 million	$520.3 million
The Rise of Skywalker (2019)	$177.4 million	$229.9 million	$1.07 billion	$1.39 billion
The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026)	$81-82 million	N/A	TBD	N/A

If The Mandalorian and Grogu has a similar trajectory to Solo, it might only gross $382 million worldwide by the end of its run, which would make it the lowest-grossing live-action Star Wars movie both unadjusted and adjusted for inflation. However, while Solo was a notable flop for the franchise, Mandalorian and Grogu has a few major advantages.

First of all, the reported budget of The Mandalorian and Grogu is considerably lower. Solo reportedly cost about $300 million, while the new movie's $165 million price tag is almost half that total and marks the lowest budget of any Star Wars movie since 2015. A source for The Hollywood Reporter has intimated that the movie will need to earn between $500 and $600 million in order to break even.

While that would be a major hurdle if the movie had the same trajectory as Solo, some signs are pointing toward that not being the case. The Mandalorian and Grogu reviews have been solid across the board, earning it 63% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes (about even with Solo's 69%) and 88% from audiences (ahead of Solo's 63%) with a CinemaScore of A- (tied with Solo). That vastly improved audience score on the Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter could indicate that it will become a word-of-mouth success at a level that Solo couldn't quite reach.

Ultimately, it could be touch-and-go as The Mandalorian continues to play in theaters over the coming months, especially with the arrival of major blockbuster competitors in June, including Toy Story 5 and Steven Spielberg's Disclosure Day. However, it is on solid enough footing that it could be a decent opening salvo for Star Wars' return to the big screen, rather than an ominous box office bomb.

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