TD Cowen sets $97,500 year-end Bitcoin price target, 25% upside

TD Cowen has put a number on where it thinks Bitcoin ends the year: $97,500. That implies roughly 25% upside from the $78,000 level the asset was recently trading near, and it comes packaged with a significant asterisk: the bank is simultaneously walking back targets it set not long ago that were far more optimistic.

Analyst Lance Vitanza is the name behind the revised call. Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $58,400 to $78,000, with monthly drawdowns exceeding 20% and a pullback of more than 50% from prior highs above $126,000. In that context, a $97,500 target is less a bold bet and more a calibrated expectation that the market stabilizes and recovers without recapturing previous peaks by December.

What changed and by how much

The bank had previously projected Bitcoin would hit $141,277 by the end of 2025 and reach somewhere between $177,000 and $225,000 in the 2026-to-2027 window. Those numbers have been compressed substantially.

The updated base-case projection for year-end 2026 now sits at approximately $100,000, down from a prior estimate around $140,000.

Vitanza’s note attributes the revisions to recent price weakness rather than any company-specific or structural deterioration. Regulatory clarity and broader index inclusion remain on TD Cowen’s list of potential catalysts that could accelerate a recovery.

The Strategy trade and the Strive call

Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led firm that pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury playbook, saw its price target cut to $260 from $400. The reduction tracks the Bitcoin forecast revision rather than any change in TD Cowen’s view of Strategy’s execution or capital structure. The bank kept its Buy rating intact.

Strategy holds a large Bitcoin position on its balance sheet, so its equity value moves in close correlation with Bitcoin’s price. When the asset’s projected year-end value drops by roughly 30%, the equity target follows in the same direction.

Separately, TD Cowen initiated coverage on Strive, projecting the firm will accumulate more than 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026. The bank set a share price target of $32 on Strive, implying 33% upside. That coverage note is dated September 1, 2026.

What this means for the broader picture

The $97,500 target implicitly challenges the narrative that Bitcoin’s rally is structurally broken. A 25% move from current levels over the remainder of the year requires genuine demand recovery, whether from retail flows returning, institutional allocation decisions, or the regulatory catalysts Vitanza flags as potential turning points.

Bitcoin’s trading range of $58,400 to $78,000 means there’s a wide band of possible entry points for investors weighing the TD Cowen thesis. At the low end of that range, the $97,500 target represents closer to 67% upside. At the high end, it’s the 25% the headline describes.

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